@article{christensenUncertaintyForecastsLongrun2018,
  title = {Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth},
  author = {Christensen, P. and Gillingham, K. and Nordhaus, W.},
  date = {2018-05},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  pages = {201713628+},
  issn = {0027-8424},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1713628115},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115},
  abstract = {[Significance]

This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35\,\% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes.

[Abstract]

Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1\,\% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14588218,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-emissions,climate-change,death-march-antipattern,environment-society-economy,global-warming,long-term,prediction-bias,rcp85,science-policy-interface,uncertainty,worst-case}
}

{"_id":"HoLe7kuqusAZSYfzu","bibbaseid":"christensen-gillingham-nordhaus-uncertaintyinforecastsoflongruneconomicgrowth","authorIDs":[],"author_short":["Christensen, P.","Gillingham, K.","Nordhaus, W."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Christensen"],"firstnames":["P."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Gillingham"],"firstnames":["K."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Nordhaus"],"firstnames":["W."],"suffixes":[]}],"date":"2018-05","journaltitle":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","pages":"201713628+","issn":"0027-8424","doi":"10.1073/pnas.1713628115","url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115","abstract":"[Significance] This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35\\,% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes. [Abstract] Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1\\,% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.","keywords":"*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14588218,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-emissions,climate-change,death-march-antipattern,environment-society-economy,global-warming,long-term,prediction-bias,rcp85,science-policy-interface,uncertainty,worst-case","bibtex":"@article{christensenUncertaintyForecastsLongrun2018,\n title = {Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth},\n author = {Christensen, P. and Gillingham, K. and Nordhaus, W.},\n date = {2018-05},\n journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},\n pages = {201713628+},\n issn = {0027-8424},\n doi = {10.1073/pnas.1713628115},\n url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115},\n abstract = {[Significance]\n\nThis study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35\\,\\% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5), illustrating particular importance for understanding extreme outcomes.\n\n[Abstract]\n\nForecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1\\,\\% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. 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