Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project. Ciscar, J.C, Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A.&nbsp;K., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Doorslaer, B.&nbsp;V., Barrios, S., Ib́añez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libert̀a, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de&nbsp;Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J.&nbsp;I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Regemorter, D.&nbsp;V., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T., Vrontisi, Z., Baranzelli, C., Vandecasteele, I., e&nbsp;Silva, F.<nbsp>B., & Ibarreta, D. Volume 26586 of EUR – Scientific and Technical Research, Publications Office of the European Union, 2014. 155 pp.
Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual EU damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP).
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  abstract = {The objective of the {JRC} {PESETA} {II} project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of {EU} {GDP}. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual {EU} damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a {2°C} world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of {GDP}).},
  author = {Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Feyen, Luc and Soria, Antonio and Lavalle, Carlo and Raes, Frank and Perry, Miles and Nemry, Fraņ{c}oise and Demirel, Hande and Rozsai, Ḿ{a}té and Dosio, Alessandro and Donatelli, Marcello and Srivastava, Amit K. and Fumagalli, Davide and Niemeyer, Stefan and Shrestha, Shailesh and Ciaian, Pavel and Himics, Mihaly and Van Doorslaer, Benjamin and Barrios, Salvador and Ib́{a}ñez, Nicoĺ{a}s and Forzieri, Giovanni and Rojas, Rodrigo and Bianchi, Alessandra and Dowling, Paul and Camia, Andrea and Libert̀{a}, Giorgio and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús and de Rigo, Daniele and Caudullo, Giovanni and Barredo, Jose I. and Paci, Daniele and Pycroft, Jonathan and Saveyn, Bert and Van Regemorter, Denise and Revesz, Tamas and Vandyck, Toon and Vrontisi, Zoi and Baranzelli, Claudia and Vandecasteele, Ine and Batista e Silva, Filipe and Ibarreta, Dolores},
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== Figures ==

* Video:    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1RGyfQplo0
* Source:   https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/new-study-quantifies-effects-climate-change-europe
* Caption:  "Reducing emissions saves billions, saves lives" is a video that presents the main conclusions of Joint Research Centre's study PESETA, which investigates climate change impacts across Europe. The research integrates what is known on climate impacts in the various natural science disciplines into the economic analysis. It takes into consideration current projections on estimated CO2 emissions, the potential range of climate variations (temperature, rain, wind, solar radiation, air humidity) and the biophysical impacts (agriculture yields, river floods, and transport infrastructure losses) to assess the economic burden of potential climate scenarios.

According to its conclusions, if no further action is taken and global temperature increases by 3.5°C, climate damages in the EU could amount to at least €190 billion, a net welfare loss of 1.8% of its current GDP. Several weather-related extremes could roughly double their average frequency. As a consequence, heat-related deaths could reach about 200 000, the cost of river flood damages could exceed €10 billion and 8000 km2 of forest could burn in southern Europe. The number of people affected by droughts could increase by a factor of seven and coastal damage, due to sea-level rise, could more than triple. These economic assessments are based on scenarios where the climate expected by the end of the century (2080s) occurs in the current population and economic landscape.


* Figure:   http://www.webcitation.org/getfile.php?fileid=3c3de00e72878639907b744df5efa5dd8e40c9f1
* Source:   http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/economic_results.html
* Archived: http://www.webcitation.org/6UYSwpqzx
* Caption:  Welfare change is an appropriate metric to interpret the results of GEM-E3, as the economic model is rooted in neoclassical economics, where households pursue the maximisation of their welfare levels. Welfare changes for the core Reference and 2°C runs are shown below, expressed as a percentage of GDP. The net welfare loss is estimated to be 1.8% of GDP under the Reference run. The greatest negative impacts (2/3 of the total) are associated with the damages to human health, illustrating the fact that ignoring non-market impacts in the economic analysis of climate impacts can lead to severe underestimation of the overall climate damages. Other notable negative impacts are demand for energy in Southern Europe and coastal impacts (sea level rise) elsewhere. In Southern Europe, increased energy expenditure reduces consumers' welfare, even though it adds to GDP. This is because consumers have to reduce expenditure on other items and spend more on energy merely to maintain the same level of comfort. In the other regions, the opposite is true.},
  doi = {10.2791/7409},
  editor = {Ciscar, J. C.},
  isbn = {978-92-79-36833-2},
  issn = {1831-9424},
  keywords = {agricultural-resources, anthropogenic-impacts, bias-correction, biodiversity-impacts, climate-change, climate-projections, coastline, economic-impacts, ecosystem, energy, environmental-modelling, europe, forest-resources, integration-techniques, ipcc-scenarios, mastrave-modelling-library, modelling, multiauthor, regional-climate-models, relative-distance-similarity, scenario-analysis, science-policy-interface, semantic-array-programming, tipping-point, transdisciplinary-research, uncertainty, water-resources, wildfires},
  note = {155 pp.},
  posted-at = {2014-04-09 18:07:55},
  priority = {2},
  publisher = {Publications Office of the European Union},
  series = {EUR – Scientific and Technical Research},
  title = {Climate Impacts in {E}urope - The {JRC} {PESETA II} project},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/13131766},
  volume = {26586},
  year = {2014}
}
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