Standards for Modest Bayesian Credences

Standards for Modest Bayesian Credences. Cisewski, J., Kadane, J. B., Schervish, M. J., Seidenfeld, T., & Stern, R. Philosophy of Science, 85(1):53–78, January, 2018.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

Gordon Belot argues that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest. In response, we show that the topological conditions that underpin his criticisms of asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, for example, the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. We offer a different explication of Bayesian modesty using a goal of consensus: rival scientific opinions should be responsive to new facts as a way to resolve their disputes. Also we address Adam Elga's rebuttal to Belot's analysis, which focuses attention on the role that the assumption of countable additivity plays in Belot's criticisms.

@article{cisewski_standards_2018,
	title = {Standards for {Modest} {Bayesian} {Credences}},
	volume = {85},
	issn = {00318248},
	url = {http://0-search.ebscohost.com.wncln.wncln.org/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hus&AN=127217750&site=ehost-live},
	doi = {10.1086/694836},
	abstract = {Gordon Belot argues that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest. In response, we show that the topological conditions that underpin his criticisms of asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, for example, the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. We offer a different explication of Bayesian modesty using a goal of consensus: rival scientific opinions should be responsive to new facts as a way to resolve their disputes. Also we address Adam Elga's rebuttal to Belot's analysis, which focuses attention on the role that the assumption of countable additivity plays in Belot's criticisms.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-01-17},
	journal = {Philosophy of Science},
	author = {Cisewski, Jessi and Kadane, Joseph B. and Schervish, Mark J. and Seidenfeld, Teddy and Stern, Rafael},
	month = jan,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {Bayesian analysis, Criticism, Statistical decision making, Theory of knowledge, Topology},
	pages = {53--78}
}

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