Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., & Zang, C. Science Advances, 1(10):e1500561, November, 2015.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

@article{cook_old_2015,
	title = {Old {World} megadroughts and pluvials during the {Common} {Era}},
	volume = {1},
	url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/1/10/e1500561.full.pdf},
	doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500561},
	abstract = {Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Science Advances},
	author = {Cook, Edward R. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan and Briffa, Keith R. and Büntgen, Ulf and Frank, David and Krusic, Paul J. and Tegel, Willy and van der Schrier, Gerard and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Baillie, Mike and Baittinger, Claudia and Bleicher, Niels and Bonde, Niels and Brown, David and Carrer, Marco and Cooper, Richard and Čufar, Katarina and Dittmar, Christoph and Esper, Jan and Griggs, Carol and Gunnarson, Björn and Günther, Björn and Gutierrez, Emilia and Haneca, Kristof and Helama, Samuli and Herzig, Franz and Heussner, Karl-Uwe and Hofmann, Jutta and Janda, Pavel and Kontic, Raymond and Köse, Nesibe and Kyncl, Tomáš and Levanič, Tom and Linderholm, Hans and Manning, Sturt and Melvin, Thomas M. and Miles, Daniel and Neuwirth, Burkhard and Nicolussi, Kurt and Nola, Paola and Panayotov, Momchil and Popa, Ionel and Rothe, Andreas and Seftigen, Kristina and Seim, Andrea and Svarva, Helene and Svoboda, Miroslav and Thun, Terje and Timonen, Mauri and Touchan, Ramzi and Trotsiuk, Volodymyr and Trouet, Valerie and Walder, Felix and Ważny, Tomasz and Wilson, Rob and Zang, Christian},
	month = nov,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {e1500561},
}

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