Population viability analysis for a pond-breeding amphibian under future drought scenarios in the southeastern United States. Crawford, B. A., Maerz, J. C., Terrell, V. C., & Moore, C. T. Global Ecology and Conservation, 36:e02119, August, 2022. ![Population viability analysis for a pond-breeding amphibian under future drought scenarios in the southeastern United States [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Climate change effects are contributing to widespread declines of amphibians, and pond-breeding species may be particularly sensitive to future drought conditions that restrict wetland hydro periods and decrease opportunities for successful breeding and recruitment. Pond-breeding amphibian populations can compensate for periodic droughts via episodic booms in recruit ment, but studies predict that increased future drought conditions will negatively impact longterm persistence for several species. The southeastern United States is a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity where future trends in drought conditions are uncertain. This study applied a population viability analysis (PVA) framework for an at-risk amphibian, the gopher frog (Lithobates [Rana] capito), to (i) explore population sensitivity to the frequency of droughts that restrict reproductive events, relative to changes in other demographic rates, and (ii) forecast future population viability over 30 years, given plausible scenarios varying in the frequency and duration of droughts adapted from recent historical patterns in the southeastern United States. Population persistence was highly sensitive to frequency of reproductive success. Persistence was fairly insensitive to all demographic parameters when reproductive success was ≥ 0.7 (i.e., ≤ 3 drought years per decade, on average), but sensitivity to survival of terrestrial stages (juvenile, adults) and initial abundance increased as reproductive success decreased. Persistence proba bilities were relatively high (0.63–0.99) across a range of plausible future drought scenarios, with higher persistence probabilities (\textgreater 0.89) for all scenarios where drought years did not increase from recent historical conditions. Our results indicate gopher frog populations are likely resilient to periodic droughts that occur in 4 or fewer years per decade, but extirpation of some pop ulations is possible if recent drought patterns repeat or increase during the next 30 years. Esti mates of future risk to gopher frog populations can inform forthcoming status assessments and designation decisions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. More broadly, PVAs incorporating drought dynamics can identify climate thresholds that at-risk, pond-breeding amphibian pop ulations can tolerate, which can inform management actions (e.g., maintaining a range of hydroperiods across proximate wetlands) that provide sufficient frequent breeding opportunities for long-term persistence even under drought conditions.
@article{crawford_population_2022,
title = {Population viability analysis for a pond-breeding amphibian under future drought scenarios in the southeastern {United} {States}},
volume = {36},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {23519894},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2351989422001214},
doi = {10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02119},
abstract = {Climate change effects are contributing to widespread declines of amphibians, and pond-breeding species may be particularly sensitive to future drought conditions that restrict wetland hydro periods and decrease opportunities for successful breeding and recruitment. Pond-breeding amphibian populations can compensate for periodic droughts via episodic booms in recruit ment, but studies predict that increased future drought conditions will negatively impact longterm persistence for several species. The southeastern United States is a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity where future trends in drought conditions are uncertain. This study applied a population viability analysis (PVA) framework for an at-risk amphibian, the gopher frog (Lithobates [Rana] capito), to (i) explore population sensitivity to the frequency of droughts that restrict reproductive events, relative to changes in other demographic rates, and (ii) forecast future population viability over 30 years, given plausible scenarios varying in the frequency and duration of droughts adapted from recent historical patterns in the southeastern United States. Population persistence was highly sensitive to frequency of reproductive success. Persistence was fairly insensitive to all demographic parameters when reproductive success was ≥ 0.7 (i.e., ≤ 3 drought years per decade, on average), but sensitivity to survival of terrestrial stages (juvenile, adults) and initial abundance increased as reproductive success decreased. Persistence proba bilities were relatively high (0.63–0.99) across a range of plausible future drought scenarios, with higher persistence probabilities ({\textgreater} 0.89) for all scenarios where drought years did not increase from recent historical conditions. Our results indicate gopher frog populations are likely resilient to periodic droughts that occur in 4 or fewer years per decade, but extirpation of some pop ulations is possible if recent drought patterns repeat or increase during the next 30 years. Esti mates of future risk to gopher frog populations can inform forthcoming status assessments and designation decisions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. More broadly, PVAs incorporating drought dynamics can identify climate thresholds that at-risk, pond-breeding amphibian pop ulations can tolerate, which can inform management actions (e.g., maintaining a range of hydroperiods across proximate wetlands) that provide sufficient frequent breeding opportunities for long-term persistence even under drought conditions.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2022-05-04},
journal = {Global Ecology and Conservation},
author = {Crawford, Brian A. and Maerz, John C. and Terrell, Vanessa C.K. and Moore, Clinton T.},
month = aug,
year = {2022},
pages = {e02119},
}
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Pond-breeding amphibian populations can compensate for periodic droughts via episodic booms in recruit ment, but studies predict that increased future drought conditions will negatively impact longterm persistence for several species. The southeastern United States is a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity where future trends in drought conditions are uncertain. This study applied a population viability analysis (PVA) framework for an at-risk amphibian, the gopher frog (Lithobates [Rana] capito), to (i) explore population sensitivity to the frequency of droughts that restrict reproductive events, relative to changes in other demographic rates, and (ii) forecast future population viability over 30 years, given plausible scenarios varying in the frequency and duration of droughts adapted from recent historical patterns in the southeastern United States. Population persistence was highly sensitive to frequency of reproductive success. Persistence was fairly insensitive to all demographic parameters when reproductive success was ≥ 0.7 (i.e., ≤ 3 drought years per decade, on average), but sensitivity to survival of terrestrial stages (juvenile, adults) and initial abundance increased as reproductive success decreased. Persistence proba bilities were relatively high (0.63–0.99) across a range of plausible future drought scenarios, with higher persistence probabilities (\\textgreater 0.89) for all scenarios where drought years did not increase from recent historical conditions. Our results indicate gopher frog populations are likely resilient to periodic droughts that occur in 4 or fewer years per decade, but extirpation of some pop ulations is possible if recent drought patterns repeat or increase during the next 30 years. Esti mates of future risk to gopher frog populations can inform forthcoming status assessments and designation decisions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 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Pond-breeding amphibian populations can compensate for periodic droughts via episodic booms in recruit ment, but studies predict that increased future drought conditions will negatively impact longterm persistence for several species. The southeastern United States is a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity where future trends in drought conditions are uncertain. This study applied a population viability analysis (PVA) framework for an at-risk amphibian, the gopher frog (Lithobates [Rana] capito), to (i) explore population sensitivity to the frequency of droughts that restrict reproductive events, relative to changes in other demographic rates, and (ii) forecast future population viability over 30 years, given plausible scenarios varying in the frequency and duration of droughts adapted from recent historical patterns in the southeastern United States. Population persistence was highly sensitive to frequency of reproductive success. Persistence was fairly insensitive to all demographic parameters when reproductive success was ≥ 0.7 (i.e., ≤ 3 drought years per decade, on average), but sensitivity to survival of terrestrial stages (juvenile, adults) and initial abundance increased as reproductive success decreased. Persistence proba bilities were relatively high (0.63–0.99) across a range of plausible future drought scenarios, with higher persistence probabilities ({\\textgreater} 0.89) for all scenarios where drought years did not increase from recent historical conditions. Our results indicate gopher frog populations are likely resilient to periodic droughts that occur in 4 or fewer years per decade, but extirpation of some pop ulations is possible if recent drought patterns repeat or increase during the next 30 years. Esti mates of future risk to gopher frog populations can inform forthcoming status assessments and designation decisions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 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