Fear of Obama: An empirical study of the demand for guns and the U.S. 2008 presidential election. Depetris-Chauvin, E. Journal of Public Economics.
Fear of Obama: An empirical study of the demand for guns and the U.S. 2008 presidential election [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Using monthly data constructed from futures markets on presidential election outcomes and a novel proxy for firearm purchases, this paper analyzes the reponse of the demand for guns to the likelihood of Barack Obama being elected in 2008. Point estimate suggests the existence of a large Obama effect on the demand for guns. This political effect is larger than the effect associated with the worsening economic conditions. This paper presents robust empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the unprecedented increase in the demand for guns was partially driven by fears of a future Obama gun-control policy. Conversely, the evidence for a racial prejudice motivation is less conclusive. Furthermore, this paper argues that the Obama effect did not represent a short-lived intertemporal substitution effect, and that it permanently affected the stock of guns in circulation. Finally, states that had the largest increases in the demand for guns during the 2008 election race experienced significant changes in certain categories of crime relative to other states following Obama s election. In particular, those states were 20 percent more likely to experience a shooting event where at least three people were killed.
@article{depetris-chauvin_fear_????,
	title = {Fear of {Obama}: {An} empirical study of the demand for guns and the {U}.{S}. 2008 presidential election},
	issn = {0047-2727},
	shorttitle = {Fear of {Obama}},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272715000857},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2015.04.008},
	abstract = {Using monthly data constructed from futures markets on presidential election outcomes and a novel proxy for firearm purchases, this paper analyzes the reponse of the demand for guns to the likelihood of Barack Obama being elected in 2008. Point estimate suggests the existence of a large Obama effect on the demand for guns. This political effect is larger than the effect associated with the worsening economic conditions. This paper presents robust empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the unprecedented increase in the demand for guns was partially driven by fears of a future Obama gun-control policy. Conversely, the evidence for a racial prejudice motivation is less conclusive. Furthermore, this paper argues that the Obama effect did not represent a short-lived intertemporal substitution effect, and that it permanently affected the stock of guns in circulation. Finally, states that had the largest increases in the demand for guns during the 2008 election race experienced significant changes in certain categories of crime relative to other states following Obama s election. In particular, those states were 20 percent more likely to experience a shooting event where at least three people were killed.},
	urldate = {2015-05-08},
	journal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio},
	keywords = {2008 Presidential Election, Crime, Demand for Guns, Futures Market, Gun Policy, Obama, Prejudice, Regulation},
	file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:files/51355/Depetris-Chauvin - Fear of Obama An empirical study of the demand fo.pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:files/51360/S0047272715000857.html:text/html}
}
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