Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe under 1.5 C, 2 C, and 3 C Global Warming. Dosio, A. & Fischer, E. M. 45(2):935–944. ![Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe under 1.5 C, 2 C, and 3 C Global Warming [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70\,% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20\,%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60\,% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50\,% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.
@article{dosioWillHalfDegree2018,
title = {Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? {{Robust}} Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in {{Europe}} under 1.5 {{C}}, 2 {{C}}, and 3 {{C}} Global Warming},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Fischer, Erich M.},
date = {2018-01},
journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {45},
pages = {935--944},
issn = {0094-8276},
doi = {10.1002/2017gl076222},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076222},
abstract = {Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70\,\% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20\,\%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60\,\% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50\,\% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14657595,bias-correction,climate-change,climate-projections,europe,global-warming,peseta-series,robust-modelling,temperature},
number = {2}
}
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