Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe under 1.5 C, 2 C, and 3 C Global Warming. Dosio, A. and Fischer, E. M. 45(2):935–944.
Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe under 1.5 C, 2 C, and 3 C Global Warming [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70\,% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20\,%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60\,% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50\,% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.
@article{dosioWillHalfDegree2018,
  title = {Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? {{Robust}} Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in {{Europe}} under 1.5 {{C}}, 2 {{C}}, and 3 {{C}} Global Warming},
  author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Fischer, Erich M.},
  date = {2018-01},
  journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  volume = {45},
  pages = {935--944},
  issn = {0094-8276},
  doi = {10.1002/2017gl076222},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076222},
  abstract = {Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70\,\% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20\,\%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60\,\% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50\,\% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14657595,bias-correction,climate-change,climate-projections,europe,global-warming,peseta-series,robust-modelling,temperature},
  number = {2}
}
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