Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Dosio, A., Mentaschi, L., Fischer, E. M, & Wyser, K. Environmental Research Letters, March, 2018. ![Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated to increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5°C warming, a significant increase in heat waves magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. Compared to a 1.5°C world, under 2°C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5°C world, 13.8% of world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2°C warming, i.e., a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will also result in around 420 million less people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and \textasciitilde65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5°C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2°C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2°C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5°C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.
@article{dosio_extreme_2018,
title = {Extreme heat waves under 1.5°{C} and 2°{C} global warming},
issn = {1748-9326},
url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab827},
abstract = {Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated to increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5°C warming, a significant increase in heat waves magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. Compared to a 1.5°C world, under 2°C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5°C world, 13.8\% of world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9\%) under 2°C warming, i.e., a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will also result in around 420 million less people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and {\textasciitilde}65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0\% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5°C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2\%) in a 2°C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2°C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5°C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2018-04-05},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Fischer, Erich M and Wyser, Klaus},
month = mar,
year = {2018},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
file = {Dosio et al. - 2018 - Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warm.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\JCIEDN4S\\Dosio et al. - 2018 - Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warm.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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