Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred: a statistical reminder. Eypasch, E., Lefering, R., Kum, C. K., & Troidl, H. BMJ : British Medical Journal, 311(7005):619–620, September, 1995. Paper abstract bibtex The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95% confidence interval = maximum risk = 3/n (for n \textgreater 30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.
@article{eypasch_probability_1995,
title = {Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred: a statistical reminder.},
volume = {311},
issn = {0959-8138},
shorttitle = {Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2550668/},
abstract = {The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95\% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95\% confidence interval = maximum risk = 3/n (for n {\textgreater} 30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.},
number = {7005},
urldate = {2019-02-07},
journal = {BMJ : British Medical Journal},
author = {Eypasch, E. and Lefering, R. and Kum, C. K. and Troidl, H.},
month = sep,
year = {1995},
pmid = {7663258},
pmcid = {PMC2550668},
pages = {619--620}
}
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