Paper abstract bibtex

The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95% confidence interval = maximum risk = 3/n (for n \textgreater 30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.

@article{eypasch_probability_1995, title = {Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred: a statistical reminder.}, volume = {311}, issn = {0959-8138}, shorttitle = {Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2550668/}, abstract = {The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95\% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95\% confidence interval = maximum risk = 3/n (for n {\textgreater} 30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.}, number = {7005}, urldate = {2019-02-07}, journal = {BMJ : British Medical Journal}, author = {Eypasch, E. and Lefering, R. and Kum, C. K. and Troidl, H.}, month = sep, year = {1995}, pmid = {7663258}, pmcid = {PMC2550668}, pages = {619--620} }

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