A subjective probability approach to responsibility attribution. Fincham, F. D. & Jaspars, J. M. British Journal of Social Psychology, 22(2):145-161, 1983.
A subjective probability approach to responsibility attribution [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
The studies reported assess the utility of a quantitative subjective probability approach to attribution of responsibility. In the first two experiments the perceived likelihood of a specified outcome given the situation portrayed, the outcome given a particular act and the act given the situation are used to predict judgement of cause, responsibility and blame/praise. Some support was found for the utility of all three estimates especially in relation to responsibility and blame judgements. Experiment 3 attempts to show that the subjective probability of the act given the situation is causally related to responsibility attribution. Only perceived blame/praise was altered by manipulating this probability estimate. The last two experiments investigate further the causal relationship between the subjective probabilities and the attributions measured by using the former as independent variables. Judgements of blame were affected most although responsibility and, to a lesser extent, cause also varied as a function of the manipulated probabilities. Both the nature of the subjective probabilities examined and the reasons for their utility in relation to attributions are discussed.
@Article{Fincham1983,
  author   = {Fincham, F. D. and Jaspars, J. M.},
  journal  = {British Journal of Social Psychology},
  title    = {A subjective probability approach to responsibility attribution},
  year     = {1983},
  number   = {2},
  pages    = {145-161},
  volume   = {22},
  abstract = {The studies reported assess the utility of a quantitative subjective probability approach to attribution of responsibility. In the first two experiments the perceived likelihood of a specified outcome given the situation portrayed, the outcome given a particular act and the act given the situation are used to predict judgement of cause, responsibility and blame/praise. Some support was found for the utility of all three estimates especially in relation to responsibility and blame judgements. Experiment 3 attempts to show that the subjective probability of the act given the situation is causally related to responsibility attribution. Only perceived blame/praise was altered by manipulating this probability estimate. The last two experiments investigate further the causal relationship between the subjective probabilities and the attributions measured by using the former as independent variables. Judgements of blame were affected most although responsibility and, to a lesser extent, cause also varied as a function of the manipulated probabilities. Both the nature of the subjective probabilities examined and the reasons for their utility in relation to attributions are discussed.},
  doi      = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1983.tb00575.x},
  eprint   = {https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1983.tb00575.x},
  groups   = {Moral learning by numbers},
  url      = {https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1983.tb00575.x},
}

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