How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability. Fitzpatrick, M. C., Blois, J. L., Williams, J. W., Nieto‐Lugilde, D., Maguire, K. C., & Lorenz, D. J. Global Change Biology, 2018. ![How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future cli- mate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate nov- elty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological fore- casting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantify- ing future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improve- ment, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assem- blage-level information.
@article{fitzpatrick_how_2018,
title = {How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? {Using} the {Quaternary} to assess future reliability},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {1365-2486},
shorttitle = {How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts?},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14138},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14138},
abstract = {Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate
novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and
then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate
change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future cli-
mate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North
America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate nov-
elty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate
the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future
climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5)
and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak
levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological fore-
casting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response
to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences
among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantify-
ing future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this
work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly
novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improve-
ment, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and
improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assem-
blage-level information.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2018-04-11TZ},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
author = {Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. and Blois, Jessica L. and Williams, John W. and Nieto‐Lugilde, Diego and Maguire, Kaitlin C. and Lorenz, David J.},
year = {2018},
keywords = {Quaternary, climate, climate change, climate novelty, community-level modeling, ecological forecasting, no-analog, species distribution modeling}
}
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We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological fore- casting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantify- ing future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improve- ment, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assem- blage-level information.","language":"en","urldate":"2018-04-11TZ","journal":"Global Change Biology","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Fitzpatrick"],"firstnames":["Matthew","C."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Blois"],"firstnames":["Jessica","L."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Williams"],"firstnames":["John","W."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Nieto‐Lugilde"],"firstnames":["Diego"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Maguire"],"firstnames":["Kaitlin","C."],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Lorenz"],"firstnames":["David","J."],"suffixes":[]}],"year":"2018","keywords":"Quaternary, climate, climate change, climate novelty, community-level modeling, ecological forecasting, no-analog, species distribution modeling","bibtex":"@article{fitzpatrick_how_2018,\n\ttitle = {How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? {Using} the {Quaternary} to assess future reliability},\n\tcopyright = {All rights reserved},\n\tissn = {1365-2486},\n\tshorttitle = {How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts?},\n\turl = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14138},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/gcb.14138},\n\tabstract = {Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. 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