Estimating the probability that the game of Monopoly never ends

Estimating the probability that the game of Monopoly never ends. Friedman, E. J., Henderson, S. G., Byuen, T., & Gutiérrez Gallardo, G. In Rossetti, M. D., Hill, R. R., Johansson, B., Dunkin, A., & Ingalls, R. G., editors, Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference, pages 380–391, Piscataway NJ, 2009. IEEE.

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We estimate the probability that the game of Monopoly between two players playing very simple strategies never ends. Four different estimators, based respectively on straightforward simulation, a Brownian motion approximation, asymptotics for Markov chains, and importance sampling all yield an estimate of approximately twelve percent.

@inproceedings{frietal09,
	abstract = {We estimate the probability that the game of Monopoly between two players playing very simple strategies never ends. Four different estimators, based respectively on straightforward simulation, a Brownian motion approximation, asymptotics for Markov chains, and importance sampling all yield an estimate of approximately twelve percent.},
	address = {Piscataway {NJ}},
	author = {E. J. Friedman and S. G. Henderson and T. Byuen and G. {Guti\'{e}rrez Gallardo}},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference},
	date-added = {2016-01-10 16:07:54 +0000},
	date-modified = {2016-01-10 16:07:54 +0000},
	editor = {M. D. Rossetti and R. R. Hill and B. Johansson and A. Dunkin and R. G. Ingalls},
	pages = {380--391},
	publisher = {IEEE},
	title = {Estimating the probability that the game of {M}onopoly never ends},
	url_paper = {pubs/monopoly.pdf},
	year = {2009}}

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