Contagion in financial networks. Gai, P. & Kapadia, S. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 466(2120):2401–2423, August, 2010. This paper develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks with arbitrary structure. We explore how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure and asset market liquidity. Our findings suggest that financial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. And we suggest why the resilience of the system in withstanding fairly large shocks prior to 2007 should not have been taken as a reliable guide to its future robustness.Paper doi abstract bibtex This paper develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks with arbitrary structure. We explore how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure and asset market liquidity. Our findings suggest that financial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. And we suggest why the resilience of the system in withstanding fairly large shocks prior to 2007 should not have been taken as a reliable guide to its future robustness.
@article{gai_contagion_2010,
title = {Contagion in financial networks},
volume = {466},
copyright = {© 2010 The Royal Society},
url = {http://royalsocietypublishing.org/content/466/2120/2401},
doi = {10.1098/rspa.2009.0410},
abstract = {This paper develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks with arbitrary structure. We explore how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure and asset market liquidity. Our findings suggest that financial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. And we suggest why the resilience of the system in withstanding fairly large shocks prior to 2007 should not have been taken as a reliable guide to its future robustness.},
language = {en},
number = {2120},
urldate = {2014-07-07},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
author = {Gai, Prasanna and Kapadia, Sujit},
month = aug,
year = {2010},
note = {This paper develops an analytical model of contagion in financial networks with arbitrary structure. We explore how the probability and potential impact of contagion is influenced by aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, changes in network structure and asset market liquidity. Our findings suggest that financial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. And we suggest why the resilience of the system in withstanding fairly large shocks prior to 2007 should not have been taken as a reliable guide to its future robustness.},
keywords = {finance, collapse, systemic-risks},
pages = {2401--2423},
file = {Gai and Kapadia - 2010 - Contagion in financial networks.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\CWP3228T\\Gai and Kapadia - 2010 - Contagion in financial networks.pdf:application/pdf}
}
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