The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles. Garcia, A. M., Rose, J. C., Torrey, P., Caputo, A., Lisanti, M., Pace, A. B., Liu, H., Hussein, A., Liu, H., Villaescusa-Navarro, F., Barry, J., Leisher, I., Costanza, B., Kho, J., Lilie, E., Li 李, J. 嘉 轩, Ahvazi, N., Bhowmick, A., Nguyen, T., O’Neil, S., Ou, X., Shen, X., Farahi, A., Kallivayalil, N., Necib, L., & Vogelsberger, M. The Astrophysical Journal, 1002(1):8, May, 2026.
The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.
@article{garcia_dreams_2026,
	title = {The {DREAMS} {Project}: {Disentangling} the {Impact} of {Halo}-to-halo {Variance} and {Baryonic} {Feedback} on {Milky} {Way} {Dark} {Matter} {Density} {Profiles}},
	volume = {1002},
	issn = {0004-637X, 1538-4357},
	shorttitle = {The {DREAMS} {Project}},
	url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ae5938},
	doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ae5938},
	abstract = {In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2026-05-05},
	journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
	author = {Garcia, Alex M. and Rose, Jonah C. and Torrey, Paul and Caputo, Andrea and Lisanti, Mariangela and Pace, Andrew B. and Liu, Hongwan and Hussein, Abdelaziz and Liu, Haozhe and Villaescusa-Navarro, Francisco and Barry, John and Leisher, Ilem and Costanza, Belén and Kho, Jonathan and Lilie, Ethan and Li 李, Jiaxuan 嘉 轩 and Ahvazi, Niusha and Bhowmick, Aklant and Nguyen, Tri and O’Neil, Stephanie and Ou, Xiaowei and Shen, Xuejian and Farahi, Arya and Kallivayalil, Nitya and Necib, Lina and Vogelsberger, Mark},
	month = may,
	year = {2026},
	keywords = {SYS: CosmicAI Contact Author, Use-Inspired, WG: Explainable},
	pages = {8},
}
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