Projecting the local impacts of climate change on a Central American montane avian community

Projecting the local impacts of climate change on a Central American montane avian community. Gasner, M. R., Jankowski, J. E., Ciecka, A. L., Kyle, K. O., & Rabenold, K. N. Biological Conservation, 143(5):1250 - 1258, 2010.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1Â km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100Â km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species' abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the TilarÃ¡n Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and PanamÃ¡. Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

@ARTICLE{Gasner2010,
  author = {Matthew R. Gasner and Jill E. Jankowski and Anna L. Ciecka and Keiller
	O. Kyle and Kerry N. Rabenold},
  title = {Projecting the local impacts of climate change on a Central American
	montane avian community},
  journal = {Biological Conservation},
  year = {2010},
  volume = {143},
  pages = {1250 - 1258},
  number = {5},
  abstract = {Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected
	over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity
	on local scales (<1Â km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher
	beta diversity on 10-100Â km2 scales. Climate change will likely
	disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces
	such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate
	change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges,
	but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also
	necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model
	species' abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the TilarÃ¡n
	Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature
	and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics
	and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly.
	We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected
	to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected
	to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species
	projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands
	of Costa Rica and PanamÃ¡. Logistic-regression modelling of distributions
	and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall
	models suggest that changes in both variables will be important.
	Although these projections are probably conservative because they
	do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions,
	they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological
	complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning
	for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal
	reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.},
  doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2010.02.034},
  issn = {0006-3207},
  keywords = {Altitudinal gradient, Climate-envelope model, Central America, Tropical
	birds, Range shift, Biodiversity conservation },
  owner = {eric},
  subdatabase = {distance},
  timestamp = {2010.04.26},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V5X-4YP16Y8-4/2/682f804089501ff5d3ef07eb8c8e52b5}
}

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