Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison. Gillingham, K., Nordhaus, W., Anthoff, D., Blanford, G., Bosetti, V., Christensen, P., McJeon, H. C., Reilly, J., & Sztorc, P. 2015. ![Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs (probability density functions) of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.
@misc{gillingham_modeling_2015,
title = {Modeling {Uncertainty} in {Climate} {Change}: {A} {Multi}-{Model} {Comparison}},
shorttitle = {Discussion {Paper} {No}. 2022},
url = {http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2022.pdf [October 2016]},
abstract = {The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs (probability density functions) of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.},
publisher = {Cowles Foundation},
author = {Gillingham, Kenneth and Nordhaus, William and Anthoff, D. and Blanford, Geoffrey and Bosetti, Valentina and Christensen, P. and McJeon, Haewon C. and Reilly, John and Sztorc, Paul},
year = {2015},
keywords = {DR, Untagged},
}
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