Wissenschaftliche und politische Gründe für den Wandel der IPCC-Szenarien. Girod, B. V. & Mieg, H. A. GAIA-Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, 17:302-311, 2008. ![Wissenschaftliche und politische Gründe für den Wandel der IPCC-Szenarien [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex Since its establishment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three series of emission scenarios that represent the backbone of climate projections. The first IPCC series in 1990 proposed a single business-as-usual emission scenario as a reference, and three intervention scenarios. The third series of scenarios, published in 2000, which is used in the IPCC’s recent Fourth Assessment Report, does not include any intervention scenarios but consists of six different reference scenarios. To assess the reasons for these changes, we analyze the changing structure of the IPCC scenarios and the intergovern- mental review process they went through. We also compare the scenarios with scenarios from literature. We find that scientific reasons alone cannot explain these changes. During the uni- fication process for the relevant IPCC report, the government representatives involved increased the number of reference scenarios, excluded intervention scenarios, and prevented scenario names that emphasized the interventionist character of those scenarios with low emissions. These findings illustrate difficulties in scenario construction that need to be resolved for the next generation of IPCC scenarios. Das IPCC hat seit 1990 drei Reihen von Klimaszenarien publiziert. Die erste Reihe enthielt ein Referenzszenario und drei Interventions- szenarien, die aktuelle Reihe hingegen enthält sechs Referenz- szenarien – Interventionsszenarien fehlen. Stehen dahinter wissenschaftliche oder politische Gründe?
@article{Girod2008,
abstract = {Since its establishment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three series of emission scenarios that represent the backbone of climate projections. The first
IPCC series in 1990 proposed a single business-as-usual emission scenario as a reference, and three intervention scenarios. The third series of scenarios, published in 2000, which is used in the IPCC’s recent Fourth Assessment Report, does not include any intervention scenarios but consists of six different reference scenarios. To assess the reasons for these changes, we analyze the changing structure of the IPCC scenarios and the intergovern- mental review process they went through. We also compare the scenarios with scenarios from literature. We find that scientific reasons alone cannot explain these changes. During the uni- fication process for the relevant IPCC report, the government representatives involved increased the number of reference scenarios, excluded intervention scenarios, and prevented scenario names that emphasized the interventionist character
of those scenarios with low emissions. These findings illustrate difficulties in scenario construction that need to be resolved for the next generation of IPCC scenarios.
Das IPCC hat seit 1990 drei Reihen von Klimaszenarien publiziert. Die erste Reihe enthielt ein Referenzszenario und drei Interventions- szenarien, die aktuelle Reihe hingegen enthält sechs Referenz- szenarien – Interventionsszenarien fehlen. Stehen dahinter wissenschaftliche oder politische Gründe?},
author = {Bastien VS Girod and Harald A. Mieg},
issue = {3},
journal = {GAIA-Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society},
keywords = {CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY; EMISSION SCENARIOS; IPCC; SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE; STORYLINES},
pages = {302-311},
title = {Wissenschaftliche und politische Gründe für den Wandel der IPCC-Szenarien},
volume = {17},
url = {www.oekom.de/gaia},
year = {2008},
}
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We find that scientific reasons alone cannot explain these changes. During the uni- fication process for the relevant IPCC report, the government representatives involved increased the number of reference scenarios, excluded intervention scenarios, and prevented scenario names that emphasized the interventionist character of those scenarios with low emissions. These findings illustrate difficulties in scenario construction that need to be resolved for the next generation of IPCC scenarios. Das IPCC hat seit 1990 drei Reihen von Klimaszenarien publiziert. Die erste Reihe enthielt ein Referenzszenario und drei Interventions- szenarien, die aktuelle Reihe hingegen enthält sechs Referenz- szenarien – Interventionsszenarien fehlen. 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The third series of scenarios, published in 2000, which is used in the IPCC’s recent Fourth Assessment Report, does not include any intervention scenarios but consists of six different reference scenarios. To assess the reasons for these changes, we analyze the changing structure of the IPCC scenarios and the intergovern- mental review process they went through. We also compare the scenarios with scenarios from literature. We find that scientific reasons alone cannot explain these changes. During the uni- fication process for the relevant IPCC report, the government representatives involved increased the number of reference scenarios, excluded intervention scenarios, and prevented scenario names that emphasized the interventionist character\nof those scenarios with low emissions. These findings illustrate difficulties in scenario construction that need to be resolved for the next generation of IPCC scenarios.\n\n\nDas IPCC hat seit 1990 drei Reihen von Klimaszenarien publiziert. 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