the Probability of Conditionals. Girotto, V. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. Psychologia, 47(4):207--225, 2004.
bibtex   
@article{Girotto2004a,
author = {Girotto, V. and Johnson-Laird, P. N.},
journal = {Psychologia},
keywords = {a fair die thrown,at random lands with,conditional,conditional probability,e,extensional reasoning,i,is true,mastered the probability calculus,mental model,na\"{\i}ve individuals,one or six uppermost,tend to,that the following assertion,those who have not,what is the probability},
number = {4},
pages = {207--225},
title = {{the Probability of Conditionals}},
volume = {47},
year = {2004}
}
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