A Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Probability of Mission Success Based on Bayesian Theory. Glenny, V. Technical Report June, 2014.
abstract   bibtex   
The Mission Success Prediction Capability (MSPC) is a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to mission planning, used for the analysis of complex systems of precision strike (air-to-surface) weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for the calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.
@techreport{glenny_framework_2014,
	title = {A {Framework} for the {Statistical} {Analysis} of {Probability} of {Mission} {Success} {Based} on {Bayesian} {Theory}},
	copyright = {Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.},
	abstract = {The Mission Success Prediction Capability (MSPC) is a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to mission planning, used for the analysis of complex systems of precision strike (air-to-surface) weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for the calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.},
	language = {en},
	author = {Glenny, Vanessa},
	month = jun,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {*AIR TO SURFACE MISSILES, AUSTRALIA, Air- and Space-launched Guided Missiles, Bayesian networks, FOREIGN REPORTS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, MODELS, Modelling, PROBABILISTIC MODELLING, PROBABILITY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING, Statistics and Probability}
}

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