Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit. Gómez-Sánchez, A. & Lougheed, S. C. Climate Change Ecology, 10:100103, November, 2025. ![Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 % of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 %) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 %). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.
@article{gomez-sanchez_antagonistic_2025,
title = {Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit},
volume = {10},
issn = {2666-9005},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900525000127},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100103},
abstract = {Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 \% of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 \%) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 \%). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.},
urldate = {2026-05-27},
journal = {Climate Change Ecology},
author = {Gómez-Sánchez, Andrea and Lougheed, Stephen C.},
month = nov,
year = {2025},
keywords = {Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)},
pages = {100103},
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"3Dq8db9L3ujKycAcs","bibbaseid":"gmezsnchez-lougheed-antagonisticclimatelandusechangeinteractionsshapefuturedistributionsofatemperatesnakeatthenorthernrangelimit-2025","author_short":["Gómez-Sánchez, A.","Lougheed, S. C."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit","volume":"10","issn":"2666-9005","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900525000127","doi":"10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100103","abstract":"Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 % of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 %) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 %). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.","urldate":"2026-05-27","journal":"Climate Change Ecology","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Gómez-Sánchez"],"firstnames":["Andrea"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Lougheed"],"firstnames":["Stephen","C."],"suffixes":[]}],"month":"November","year":"2025","keywords":"Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)","pages":"100103","bibtex":"@article{gomez-sanchez_antagonistic_2025,\n\ttitle = {Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit},\n\tvolume = {10},\n\tissn = {2666-9005},\n\turl = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900525000127},\n\tdoi = {10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100103},\n\tabstract = {Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 \\% of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 \\%) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 \\%). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.},\n\turldate = {2026-05-27},\n\tjournal = {Climate Change Ecology},\n\tauthor = {Gómez-Sánchez, Andrea and Lougheed, Stephen C.},\n\tmonth = nov,\n\tyear = {2025},\n\tkeywords = {Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)},\n\tpages = {100103},\n}\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","author_short":["Gómez-Sánchez, A.","Lougheed, S. C."],"key":"gomez-sanchez_antagonistic_2025","id":"gomez-sanchez_antagonistic_2025","bibbaseid":"gmezsnchez-lougheed-antagonisticclimatelandusechangeinteractionsshapefuturedistributionsofatemperatesnakeatthenorthernrangelimit-2025","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900525000127"},"keyword":["Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)"],"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}}},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"https://bibbase.org/zotero/NAAtlas2024","dataSources":["qLjf8q88GSLZ5dAmC"],"keywords":["terrestrial ecoregions (wiken 2011)"],"search_terms":["antagonistic","climate","land","use","change","interactions","shape","future","distributions","temperate","snake","northern","range","limit","gómez-sánchez","lougheed"],"title":"Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit","year":2025}