Probabilistic prediction of post-fire debris-flow runout and implications for prefire assessments of post-fire hazards. Gorr, A. N., McGuire, L. A., Youberg, A. M., & Lindsay, D. N. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 35(2):WF25161, February, 2026. ![Probabilistic prediction of post-fire debris-flow runout and implications for prefire assessments of post-fire hazards [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Debris-flow runout modeling is a valuable component of the prefire assessment of post-fire hazards. The application and benefits of runout modeling are limited by uncertainty in debris-flow volume as well as model parameters related to flow mobility.In this study, we assess and reduce the uncertainty associated with flow-mobility parameters by calibrating a debris-flow runout model to 12 runoff-generated debris flows in the western United States.For each debris flow, we determined optimal flow-mobility parameters using back analyses and generated a posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We assessed the relative sensitivity of the model to the flow-mobility parameters, rainfall intensification and fire burn severity when applied to three post-fire debris flows.Yield strength, one of the flow-mobility parameters, exhibits a negative, linear relationship with soil clay content. Modeled area inundated is most sensitive to the flow-mobility parameters, followed by a rainfall intensification factor.Well-constrained flow-mobility parameters will improve post-fire debris-flow runout modeling, though prefire assessments of post-fire hazards could also benefit from accounting for the effects of rainfall intensification.This study improves our ability to simulate debris-flow runout and assess associated hazards.
@article{gorr_probabilistic_2026,
title = {Probabilistic prediction of post-fire debris-flow runout and implications for prefire assessments of post-fire hazards},
volume = {35},
issn = {1049-8001},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF25161},
doi = {10.1071/WF25161},
abstract = {Debris-flow runout modeling is a valuable component of the prefire assessment of post-fire hazards. The application and benefits of runout modeling are limited by uncertainty in debris-flow volume as well as model parameters related to flow mobility.In this study, we assess and reduce the uncertainty associated with flow-mobility parameters by calibrating a debris-flow runout model to 12 runoff-generated debris flows in the western United States.For each debris flow, we determined optimal flow-mobility parameters using back analyses and generated a posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We assessed the relative sensitivity of the model to the flow-mobility parameters, rainfall intensification and fire burn severity when applied to three post-fire debris flows.Yield strength, one of the flow-mobility parameters, exhibits a negative, linear relationship with soil clay content. Modeled area inundated is most sensitive to the flow-mobility parameters, followed by a rainfall intensification factor.Well-constrained flow-mobility parameters will improve post-fire debris-flow runout modeling, though prefire assessments of post-fire hazards could also benefit from accounting for the effects of rainfall intensification.This study improves our ability to simulate debris-flow runout and assess associated hazards.},
number = {2},
urldate = {2026-05-27},
journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
author = {Gorr, Alexander N. and McGuire, Luke A. and Youberg, Ann M. and Lindsay, Donald N.},
month = feb,
year = {2026},
keywords = {Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)},
pages = {WF25161},
}
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