Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates. Gåsemyr, J. & Hubin, A. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 50(2):452 – 476, 2023. Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc Type: Article
Paper doi abstract bibtex This paper deals with the specification of probability distributions expressing ignorance concerning annual or otherwise discretized failure or mortality rates, when these rates can safely be assumed to be increasing and convex, but are completely unknown otherwise. Such distributions can be used as noninformative priors for Bayesian analysis of failure data. We demonstrate why a uniform distribution used in earlier work is unsatisfactory, especially from the point of view of insensitivity with respect to the time scale that is chosen for the problem at hand. We suggest alternative distributions based on Dirichlet distributed weights for the extreme points of relevant convex sets, and discuss which consequences a requirement for scale neutrality has for the choice of Dirichlet parameters. © 2022 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.
@article{gasemyr_prior_2023,
title = {Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates},
volume = {50},
issn = {03036898},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85128281278&doi=10.1111%2fsjos.12588&partnerID=40&md5=a854e59175f89c531a30424c73e0f992},
doi = {10.1111/sjos.12588},
abstract = {This paper deals with the specification of probability distributions expressing ignorance concerning annual or otherwise discretized failure or mortality rates, when these rates can safely be assumed to be increasing and convex, but are completely unknown otherwise. Such distributions can be used as noninformative priors for Bayesian analysis of failure data. We demonstrate why a uniform distribution used in earlier work is unsatisfactory, especially from the point of view of insensitivity with respect to the time scale that is chosen for the problem at hand. We suggest alternative distributions based on Dirichlet distributed weights for the extreme points of relevant convex sets, and discuss which consequences a requirement for scale neutrality has for the choice of Dirichlet parameters. © 2022 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd on behalf of The Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.},
language = {English},
number = {2},
journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Statistics},
author = {Gåsemyr, Jørund and Hubin, Aliaksandr},
year = {2023},
note = {Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc
Type: Article},
pages = {452 -- 476},
}
Downloads: 0
{"_id":"xecbZChudMHY4peRL","bibbaseid":"gsemyr-hubin-priordistributionsexpressingignoranceaboutconvexincreasingfailurerates-2023","author_short":["Gåsemyr, J.","Hubin, A."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"article","type":"article","title":"Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates","volume":"50","issn":"03036898","url":"https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85128281278&doi=10.1111%2fsjos.12588&partnerID=40&md5=a854e59175f89c531a30424c73e0f992","doi":"10.1111/sjos.12588","abstract":"This paper deals with the specification of probability distributions expressing ignorance concerning annual or otherwise discretized failure or mortality rates, when these rates can safely be assumed to be increasing and convex, but are completely unknown otherwise. Such distributions can be used as noninformative priors for Bayesian analysis of failure data. We demonstrate why a uniform distribution used in earlier work is unsatisfactory, especially from the point of view of insensitivity with respect to the time scale that is chosen for the problem at hand. We suggest alternative distributions based on Dirichlet distributed weights for the extreme points of relevant convex sets, and discuss which consequences a requirement for scale neutrality has for the choice of Dirichlet parameters. © 2022 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.","language":"English","number":"2","journal":"Scandinavian Journal of Statistics","author":[{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Gåsemyr"],"firstnames":["Jørund"],"suffixes":[]},{"propositions":[],"lastnames":["Hubin"],"firstnames":["Aliaksandr"],"suffixes":[]}],"year":"2023","note":"Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc Type: Article","pages":"452 – 476","bibtex":"@article{gasemyr_prior_2023,\n\ttitle = {Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates},\n\tvolume = {50},\n\tissn = {03036898},\n\turl = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85128281278&doi=10.1111%2fsjos.12588&partnerID=40&md5=a854e59175f89c531a30424c73e0f992},\n\tdoi = {10.1111/sjos.12588},\n\tabstract = {This paper deals with the specification of probability distributions expressing ignorance concerning annual or otherwise discretized failure or mortality rates, when these rates can safely be assumed to be increasing and convex, but are completely unknown otherwise. Such distributions can be used as noninformative priors for Bayesian analysis of failure data. We demonstrate why a uniform distribution used in earlier work is unsatisfactory, especially from the point of view of insensitivity with respect to the time scale that is chosen for the problem at hand. We suggest alternative distributions based on Dirichlet distributed weights for the extreme points of relevant convex sets, and discuss which consequences a requirement for scale neutrality has for the choice of Dirichlet parameters. © 2022 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics published by John Wiley \\& Sons Ltd on behalf of The Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.},\n\tlanguage = {English},\n\tnumber = {2},\n\tjournal = {Scandinavian Journal of Statistics},\n\tauthor = {Gåsemyr, Jørund and Hubin, Aliaksandr},\n\tyear = {2023},\n\tnote = {Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc\nType: Article},\n\tpages = {452 -- 476},\n}\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","author_short":["Gåsemyr, J.","Hubin, A."],"key":"gasemyr_prior_2023","id":"gasemyr_prior_2023","bibbaseid":"gsemyr-hubin-priordistributionsexpressingignoranceaboutconvexincreasingfailurerates-2023","role":"author","urls":{"Paper":"https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85128281278&doi=10.1111%2fsjos.12588&partnerID=40&md5=a854e59175f89c531a30424c73e0f992"},"metadata":{"authorlinks":{}}},"bibtype":"article","biburl":"http://bibbase.org/zotero-group/science_et_ignorance/1340424","dataSources":["zX4acseCDM6D58AW7"],"keywords":[],"search_terms":["prior","distributions","expressing","ignorance","convex","increasing","failure","rates","gåsemyr","hubin"],"title":"Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates","year":2023}