Assessing Spring Phenology Models with Photosynthesis Integration: Mechanistic Drivers of the Carbon–Frost Trade-Off. Gu, Y., Wu, Q., Wang, X., & Wang, Y. Forests, 17(2):287, February, 2026. Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute![Assessing Spring Phenology Models with Photosynthesis Integration: Mechanistic Drivers of the Carbon–Frost Trade-Off [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Accurate prediction of spring phenology is critical for understanding ecosystem carbon and water dynamics under changing climates. In this study, we applied a revised optimality-based model (R-OPT) that integrates a mechanistic photosynthesis framework into the existing OPT model to simulate leaf unfolding date. We evaluated R-OPT alongside three widely used models—Growing Degree Days (GDD), Chilling–Forcing Trade-off (CFT), and Optimality-based (OPT) models—across multiple Plant Functional Types (PFTs) and sites using repeated 5-fold cross-validation. Findings reveal that R-OPT consistently outperforms the other models, achieving the lowest median RMSE (13.11 days), indicating enhanced predictive accuracy and explanatory power. Although the model incurs slightly higher complexity (median AIC = 13.44), the improvement in prediction justifies the trade-off. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating plant functional traits and environmental heterogeneity in phenological modeling. PFT-specific differences, such as the lower RMSEs for evergreen forbs and deciduous broadleaf PFTs versus larger uncertainties for drought-deciduous and semi-evergreen PFTs, underscore that current models may insufficiently capture key environmental drivers, including precipitation and partial leaf retention. Latitudinal and elevational variations in trade-off parameter a, and the prominence of leaf-level carbon assimilation traits (Aleaf) as drivers of phenology, demonstrate the critical role of physiological traits in shaping PFT-specific phenological timing. These findings have significant implications for large-scale ecosystem modeling. By linking phenology directly to photosynthetic processes, R-OPT enhances predictive skill and biological interpretability, supporting improved simulations of carbon and water fluxes. Overall, R-OPT offers a mechanistically grounded and robust framework for advancing predictive understanding of spring phenology and its ecological and climate-relevant consequences.
@article{gu_assessing_2026,
title = {Assessing {Spring} {Phenology} {Models} with {Photosynthesis} {Integration}: {Mechanistic} {Drivers} of the {Carbon}–{Frost} {Trade}-{Off}},
volume = {17},
copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/},
issn = {1999-4907},
shorttitle = {Assessing {Spring} {Phenology} {Models} with {Photosynthesis} {Integration}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/17/2/287},
doi = {10.3390/f17020287},
abstract = {Accurate prediction of spring phenology is critical for understanding ecosystem carbon and water dynamics under changing climates. In this study, we applied a revised optimality-based model (R-OPT) that integrates a mechanistic photosynthesis framework into the existing OPT model to simulate leaf unfolding date. We evaluated R-OPT alongside three widely used models—Growing Degree Days (GDD), Chilling–Forcing Trade-off (CFT), and Optimality-based (OPT) models—across multiple Plant Functional Types (PFTs) and sites using repeated 5-fold cross-validation. Findings reveal that R-OPT consistently outperforms the other models, achieving the lowest median RMSE (13.11 days), indicating enhanced predictive accuracy and explanatory power. Although the model incurs slightly higher complexity (median AIC = 13.44), the improvement in prediction justifies the trade-off. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating plant functional traits and environmental heterogeneity in phenological modeling. PFT-specific differences, such as the lower RMSEs for evergreen forbs and deciduous broadleaf PFTs versus larger uncertainties for drought-deciduous and semi-evergreen PFTs, underscore that current models may insufficiently capture key environmental drivers, including precipitation and partial leaf retention. Latitudinal and elevational variations in trade-off parameter a, and the prominence of leaf-level carbon assimilation traits (Aleaf) as drivers of phenology, demonstrate the critical role of physiological traits in shaping PFT-specific phenological timing. These findings have significant implications for large-scale ecosystem modeling. By linking phenology directly to photosynthetic processes, R-OPT enhances predictive skill and biological interpretability, supporting improved simulations of carbon and water fluxes. Overall, R-OPT offers a mechanistically grounded and robust framework for advancing predictive understanding of spring phenology and its ecological and climate-relevant consequences.},
language = {en},
number = {2},
urldate = {2026-05-27},
journal = {Forests},
author = {Gu, Yating and Wu, Qianhan and Wang, Xiaorong and Wang, Yantian},
month = feb,
year = {2026},
note = {Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
keywords = {Terrestrial Ecoregions (Griffith 2010)},
pages = {287},
}
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We evaluated R-OPT alongside three widely used models—Growing Degree Days (GDD), Chilling–Forcing Trade-off (CFT), and Optimality-based (OPT) models—across multiple Plant Functional Types (PFTs) and sites using repeated 5-fold cross-validation. Findings reveal that R-OPT consistently outperforms the other models, achieving the lowest median RMSE (13.11 days), indicating enhanced predictive accuracy and explanatory power. Although the model incurs slightly higher complexity (median AIC = 13.44), the improvement in prediction justifies the trade-off. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating plant functional traits and environmental heterogeneity in phenological modeling. PFT-specific differences, such as the lower RMSEs for evergreen forbs and deciduous broadleaf PFTs versus larger uncertainties for drought-deciduous and semi-evergreen PFTs, underscore that current models may insufficiently capture key environmental drivers, including precipitation and partial leaf retention. Latitudinal and elevational variations in trade-off parameter a, and the prominence of leaf-level carbon assimilation traits (Aleaf) as drivers of phenology, demonstrate the critical role of physiological traits in shaping PFT-specific phenological timing. These findings have significant implications for large-scale ecosystem modeling. By linking phenology directly to photosynthetic processes, R-OPT enhances predictive skill and biological interpretability, supporting improved simulations of carbon and water fluxes. 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