Climapocalypse Now? A Disaggregated Study of Climate-Related Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Conflict. Hammerstrøm, J. L. Ph.D. Thesis, 2014.
Climapocalypse Now? A Disaggregated Study of Climate-Related Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Conflict [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
A changing climate could result in conditions that entail a loss of resources and habitat for a large portion of the world s population. This may lead to heightened tensions and the risk of so called climate wars erupting. Weakened and failed states that are already prone to the risk of conflict appear to be the most vulnerable as they will also lack the resources to mitigate coming climate changes and more adverse weather conditions. By combining data from climate-related natural disasters and conflict data from the last 30 years this thesis tries to discern whether there is already an observable increase in the risk of civil war braking out in a country or location ravaged by climate disasters. A country level analysis is complimented by a disaggregated analysis utilizing geography information systems (GIS) data to see if there is any indication that a more detailed approach nets different results. The core findings of the thesis are that there is a heightened risk of civil war in geographical locations that have suffered a period of extreme drought, two to three years after the occurrence of the drought. Other types of disasters appear neither to increase nor decrease the risk of civil war onset in any significant way. Further there is no indication that climate-related natural disasters have any country-wide effect on the risk of civil war onset.
@phdthesis{hammerstrom_climapocalypse_2014,
	title = {Climapocalypse {Now}? {A} {Disaggregated} {Study} of {Climate}-{Related} {Natural} {Disasters} and the {Risk} of {Violent} {Conflict}},
	shorttitle = {Climapocalypse {Now}?},
	url = {https://www.duo.uio.no/handle/10852/43107},
	abstract = {A changing climate could result in conditions that entail a loss of resources and habitat for a large portion of the world s population. This may lead to heightened tensions and the risk of so called climate wars erupting. Weakened and failed states that are already prone to the risk of conflict appear to be the most vulnerable as they will also lack the resources to mitigate coming climate changes and more adverse weather conditions. By combining data from climate-related natural disasters and conflict data from the last 30 years this thesis tries to discern whether there is already an observable increase in the risk of civil war braking out in a country or location ravaged by climate disasters. A country level analysis is complimented by a disaggregated analysis utilizing geography information systems (GIS) data to see if there is any indication that a more detailed approach nets different results. The core findings of the thesis are that there is a heightened risk of civil war in geographical locations that have suffered a period of extreme drought, two to three years after the occurrence of the drought. Other types of disasters appear neither to increase nor decrease the risk of civil war onset in any significant way. Further there is no indication that climate-related natural disasters have any country-wide effect on the risk of civil war onset.},
	urldate = {2015-06-01},
	author = {Hammerstrøm, Johan Lie},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
	file = {Hammerstrøm - 2014 - Climapocalypse Now A Disaggregated Study of Clima.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\4EIGZRGV\\Hammerstrøm - 2014 - Climapocalypse Now A Disaggregated Study of Clima.pdf:application/pdf}
}

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