Fine-Grain Modeling of Species' Response to Climate Change: Holdouts, Stepping-Stones, and Microrefugia. Hannah, L., Flint, L., Syphard, A. D., Moritz, M. A., Buckley, L. B., & McCullough, I. M. 29(7):390–397.
Fine-Grain Modeling of Species' Response to Climate Change: Holdouts, Stepping-Stones, and Microrefugia [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
[Highlights] [::] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [::] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [::] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones. [Abstract] Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.
@article{hannahFinegrainModelingSpecies2014,
  title = {Fine-Grain Modeling of Species' Response to Climate Change: Holdouts, Stepping-Stones, and Microrefugia},
  author = {Hannah, Lee and Flint, Lorraine and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Moritz, Max A. and Buckley, Lauren B. and McCullough, Ian M.},
  date = {2014-07},
  journaltitle = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  volume = {29},
  pages = {390--397},
  issn = {0169-5347},
  doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/13660424},
  abstract = {[Highlights]

[::] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [::] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [::] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones.

[Abstract]

Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13660424,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-refugia,definition,ecology,habitat-suitability,holdouts,local-scale,migration-pattern,multi-scale,niche-modelling,species-dispersal,stepping-stones,terminology},
  number = {7}
}
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