Global warming in the pipeline. Hansen, J. E, Sato, M., Simons, L., Nazarenko, L. S, Sangha, I., Kharecha, P., Zachos, J. C, Von Schuckmann, K., Loeb, N. G, Osman, M. B, Jin, Q., Tselioudis, G., Jeong, E., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., Cao, J., & Li, J. Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1):kgad008, February, 2023. ![Global warming in the pipeline [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensi tivity 1.2 ± 0.3�C (2r) per W/m2, which is 4.8�C ± 1.2�C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10�C, which is reduced to 8�C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, de cline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18�C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27�C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5�C in the 2020s and 2�C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increas ing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West coopera tion in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, espe cially if young people can grasp their situation.
@article{hansen_global_2023,
title = {Global warming in the pipeline},
volume = {3},
issn = {2634-4068},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/doi/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008/7335889},
doi = {10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008},
abstract = {Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensi tivity 1.2 ± 0.3�C (2r) per W/m2, which is 4.8�C ± 1.2�C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10�C, which is reduced to 8�C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, de cline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18�C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27�C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5�C in the 2020s and 2�C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increas ing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West coopera tion in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, espe cially if young people can grasp their situation.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2023-11-10},
journal = {Oxford Open Climate Change},
author = {Hansen, James E and Sato, Makiko and Simons, Leon and Nazarenko, Larissa S and Sangha, Isabelle and Kharecha, Pushker and Zachos, James C and Von Schuckmann, Karina and Loeb, Norman G and Osman, Matthew B and Jin, Qinjian and Tselioudis, George and Jeong, Eunbi and Lacis, Andrew and Ruedy, Reto and Russell, Gary and Cao, Junji and Li, Jing},
month = feb,
year = {2023},
pages = {kgad008},
}
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Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10�C, which is reduced to 8�C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, de cline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18�C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27�C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5�C in the 2020s and 2�C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increas ing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West coopera tion in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. 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