The Status and Challenge of Global Fire Modelling

The Status and Challenge of Global Fire Modelling. Hantson, S., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Rabin, S. S., Archibald, S., Mouillot, F., Arnold, S. R., Artaxo, P., Bachelet, D., Ciais, P., Forrest, M., Friedlingstein, P., Hickler, T., Kaplan, J. O., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Meyn, A., Sitch, S., Spessa, A., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., & Yue, C. 13(11):3359–3375.

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Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

@article{hantsonStatusChallengeGlobal2016,
  title = {The Status and Challenge of Global Fire Modelling},
  author = {Hantson, Stijn and Arneth, Almut and Harrison, Sandy P. and Kelley, Douglas I. and Prentice, I. Colin and Rabin, Sam S. and Archibald, Sally and Mouillot, Florent and Arnold, Steve R. and Artaxo, Paulo and Bachelet, Dominique and Ciais, Philippe and Forrest, Matthew and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Hickler, Thomas and Kaplan, Jed O. and Kloster, Silvia and Knorr, Wolfgang and Lasslop, Gitta and Li, Fang and Mangeon, Stephane and Melton, Joe R. and Meyn, Andrea and Sitch, Stephen and Spessa, Allan and van der Werf, Guido R. and Voulgarakis, Apostolos and Yue, Chao},
  date = {2016-06},
  journaltitle = {Biogeosciences},
  volume = {13},
  pages = {3359--3375},
  issn = {1726-4189},
  doi = {10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14069248},
  abstract = {Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14069248,~to-add-doi-URL,disasters,disturbances,forest-resources,global-scale,modelling,wildfires},
  number = {11},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}

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