Climate Change Impacts on Insect Management and Conservation in Temperate Regions: Can They Be Predicted?. Harrington, R., Fleming, R. A., & Woiwod, I. P. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 3(4):233–240, November, 2001.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
[Excerpt: Conclusions] So where does all this leave us? Climate change studies are full of caveats and there is some inevitability in this, bearing in mind the diverse and complex systems of interest. However, there is already evidence that changes in pest ecology that are consistent with predictions of climate change impacts are occurring. Whilst there is good reason to expect some pest problems to increase, it tends to be difficult to publish negative results, and consequently there is a danger of giving the impression that all pests and diseases will increase in importance. Control programmes that include monitoring and forecasting and take account of ecological and economic factors in determining the need for using chemicals are crucial to preventing the overuse of pesticides and the development of insect resistance to them. Pest management decisions also need to be integrated into the broader context of total resource management. For instance, pesticides may reduce food sources for birds and other animals of conservation interest. The 'Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems' (GCTE) project of the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (Scherm et al., 2000) is an example of an initiative aimed at bringing interested parties together to facilitate such a systems approach. [\n] Changes in phenology, distribution and abundance consistent with climate change are also starting to be observed in insect species of no direct economic importance in agriculture and forestry. However, all species are part of the natural biodiversity and may be important in ecosystem function, for example as food items for birds and mammals. They may also be of conservation concern in their own right. For some species, climate change may be of benefit, for others it might be the last straw on top of declines due to other forms of human-induced environmental change. Careful long-term monitoring of as wide a range of species as possible is probably the first step in any strategy to understand and deal with changes as they occur. However, for long-term amelioration of the most deleterious effects, a whole suite of strategies may be needed, such as habitat restoration and creation, provision of corridors between habitat fragments and, in some cases, the translocation of species between isolated habitat patches. [\n] It is clear from the examples and counter-examples given above, that there has been very little success in generalizing predictions of global change impacts on insects. However, those working with pest insects generally claim that problems will become worse in the face of global change (i.e. pest insects will become more abundant), whereas those concerned with conservation generally suggest that insects will fare worse. If both are right, and if this is related to the earlier premise that mobility and reproductive potential tend to predispose insects to be pests, then perhaps there is some hope that a classification system can be developed that predicts how different insects are likely to respond to climate change. Cold hardiness strategy (Bale, 1993), life-cycle type (Harrington et al., 1990), feeding guild or a combination of these and other attributes may prove useful in developing such a strategy. There may be parallels in the insect world with the triangular 'stress tolerators, ruderals and competitors' classification for vascular plants developed by Grime (1974). Hodgson (1993) had some success when looking at attributes of butterflies associated with commonness and rarity. It has to be worth a try - otherwise the results from studies of global change impacts will remain parochial.
@article{harringtonClimateChangeImpacts2001,
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Insect Management and Conservation in Temperate Regions: Can They Be Predicted?},
  author = {Harrington, Richard and Fleming, Richard A. and Woiwod, Ian P.},
  year = {2001},
  month = nov,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {233--240},
  issn = {1461-9563},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1461-9555.2001.00120.x},
  abstract = {[Excerpt: Conclusions]

So where does all this leave us? Climate change studies are full of caveats and there is some inevitability in this, bearing in mind the diverse and complex systems of interest. However, there is already evidence that changes in pest ecology that are consistent with predictions of climate change impacts are occurring. Whilst there is good reason to expect some pest problems to increase, it tends to be difficult to publish negative results, and consequently there is a danger of giving the impression that all pests and diseases will increase in importance. Control programmes that include monitoring and forecasting and take account of ecological and economic factors in determining the need for using chemicals are crucial to preventing the overuse of pesticides and the development of insect resistance to them. Pest management decisions also need to be integrated into the broader context of total resource management. For instance, pesticides may reduce food sources for birds and other animals of conservation interest. The 'Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems' (GCTE) project of the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (Scherm et al., 2000) is an example of an initiative aimed at bringing interested parties together to facilitate such a systems approach.

[\textbackslash n] Changes in phenology, distribution and abundance consistent with climate change are also starting to be observed in insect species of no direct economic importance in agriculture and forestry. However, all species are part of the natural biodiversity and may be important in ecosystem function, for example as food items for birds and mammals. They may also be of conservation concern in their own right. For some species, climate change may be of benefit, for others it might be the last straw on top of declines due to other forms of human-induced environmental change. Careful long-term monitoring of as wide a range of species as possible is probably the first step in any strategy to understand and deal with changes as they occur. However, for long-term amelioration of the most deleterious effects, a whole suite of strategies may be needed, such as habitat restoration and creation, provision of corridors between habitat fragments and, in some cases, the translocation of species between isolated habitat patches.

[\textbackslash n] It is clear from the examples and counter-examples given above, that there has been very little success in generalizing predictions of global change impacts on insects. However, those working with pest insects generally claim that problems will become worse in the face of global change (i.e. pest insects will become more abundant), whereas those concerned with conservation generally suggest that insects will fare worse. If both are right, and if this is related to the earlier premise that mobility and reproductive potential tend to predispose insects to be pests, then perhaps there is some hope that a classification system can be developed that predicts how different insects are likely to respond to climate change. Cold hardiness strategy (Bale, 1993), life-cycle type (Harrington et al., 1990), feeding guild or a combination of these and other attributes may prove useful in developing such a strategy. There may be parallels in the insect world with the triangular 'stress tolerators, ruderals and competitors' classification for vascular plants developed by Grime (1974). Hodgson (1993) had some success when looking at attributes of butterflies associated with commonness and rarity. It has to be worth a try - otherwise the results from studies of global change impacts will remain parochial.},
  journal = {Agricultural and Forest Entomology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13828985,climate-change,conservation,insects,temperate-climate},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13828985},
  number = {4}
}
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