Improving New Zealand's marine biosecurity surveillance programme: A statistical review of biosecurity vectors. Hatami, R., Lane, S., Robinson, A., Inglis, G. J, Todd-Jones, C., & Seaward, K. Technical Report Biosecurity New Zealand Technical Paper No: 2021/01, Biosecurity New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand., January, 2021. ![Improving New Zealand's marine biosecurity surveillance programme: A statistical review of biosecurity vectors [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper abstract bibtex The national Marine High-Risk Site Surveillance (MHRSS) programme was established in 2002 to facilitate early detection of non-indigenous marine species (NIS) to New Zealand, including seven marine pests listed on the New Zealand register of Unwanted Organisms at eight “high risk” sites. The selection of these original sites was based on a series of proxy indicators including: • the number of international vessel visits or tonnage of imports from ports where the species were known to occur, • the volume of ballast water discharged from potential source locations, • the availability of habitat within the port or harbour that was suitable for the target species, and • hydrodynamics within the ports that would affect the retention or dispersion of local populations. The MHRSS over time has been expanded and currently 11 “high risk” sites are included in the programme. Since the inception of the MHRSS programme, survey methods for NIS have continually been refined, but there has been no reprioritisation of “high risk” sites at a national scale to account for changes to vessel traffic patterns or behaviour since 2002. Additionally, allocation of survey effort between surveillance sites is only loosely related to the relative likelihood of NIS entry and establishment at each site. Therefore, the development of a systematic statistical likelihood-based methodology that can determine the relative likelihood of exposure of sites to NIS from internationally arriving commercial vessels was developed to inform how the MHRSS programme could be improved. Several historical datasets were used to develop models for predicting ballast water discharge volume and biofouling exposure to the contemporary vessel arrival data (2015-2017) for each port of interest, using K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) and random forests algorithms for ballast water and biofouling, respectively. Tauranga had the highest predicted mean ballast water discharge volume across 2015-2017, followed by New Plymouth, Lyttelton, Taharoa, Napier, Whangarei and Gisborne. Auckland had a low volume of discharge relative to its number of vessels. Auckland had the highest average predicted biofouling exposure across 2015-2017, followed by Tauranga, Lyttelton, Napier and Wellington. The above results were used to weight the surveillance effort that could be applied to each location. The Port of Napier was identified as a site that has a high relative likelihood of NIS exposure but is not currently part of the MHRSS programme. This model could be extended in future to assess port level characteristics that influence the likelihood of establishment of NIS. Finally, several recommendations were made around data custodianship to improve how analysis in the future could be conducted.
@techreport{hatami_improving_2021,
address = {Wellington, New Zealand.},
type = {Prepared for the {Diagnostic} and {Surveillance} {Directorate}},
title = {Improving {New} {Zealand}'s marine biosecurity surveillance programme: {A} statistical review of biosecurity vectors},
url = {https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/43825-Improving-New-Zealands-marine-biosecurity-surveillance-programme-A-statistical-review-of-biosecurity-vectors},
abstract = {The national Marine High-Risk Site Surveillance (MHRSS) programme was established in 2002 to facilitate early detection of non-indigenous marine species (NIS) to New Zealand, including seven marine pests listed on the New Zealand register of Unwanted Organisms at eight “high risk” sites.
The selection of these original sites was based on a series of proxy indicators including:
• the number of international vessel visits or tonnage of imports from ports where the species were known to occur,
• the volume of ballast water discharged from potential source locations,
• the availability of habitat within the port or harbour that was suitable for the target species, and
• hydrodynamics within the ports that would affect the retention or dispersion of local populations.
The MHRSS over time has been expanded and currently 11 “high risk” sites are included in the programme.
Since the inception of the MHRSS programme, survey methods for NIS have continually been refined, but there has been no reprioritisation of “high risk” sites at a national scale to account for changes to vessel traffic patterns or behaviour since 2002. Additionally, allocation of survey effort between surveillance sites is only loosely related to the relative likelihood of NIS entry and establishment at each site. Therefore, the development of a systematic statistical likelihood-based methodology that can determine the relative likelihood of exposure of sites to NIS from internationally arriving commercial vessels was developed to inform how the MHRSS programme could be improved. Several historical datasets were used to develop models for predicting ballast water discharge volume and biofouling exposure to the contemporary vessel arrival data (2015-2017) for each port of interest, using K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) and random forests algorithms for ballast water and biofouling, respectively.
Tauranga had the highest predicted mean ballast water discharge volume across 2015-2017, followed by New Plymouth, Lyttelton, Taharoa, Napier, Whangarei and Gisborne. Auckland had a low volume of discharge relative to its number of vessels. Auckland had the highest average predicted biofouling exposure across 2015-2017, followed by Tauranga, Lyttelton, Napier and Wellington.
The above results were used to weight the surveillance effort that could be applied to each location. The Port of Napier was identified as a site that has a high relative likelihood of NIS exposure but is not currently part of the MHRSS programme. This model could be extended in future to assess port level characteristics that influence the likelihood of establishment of NIS.
Finally, several recommendations were made around data custodianship to improve how analysis in the future could be conducted.},
number = {Biosecurity New Zealand Technical Paper No: 2021/01},
urldate = {2021-01-26},
institution = {Biosecurity New Zealand},
author = {Hatami, Rezvan and Lane, Steve and Robinson, Andrew and Inglis, Graeme J and Todd-Jones, Charlotte and Seaward, Kimberley},
month = jan,
year = {2021},
pages = {95},
}
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J","Todd-Jones, C.","Seaward, K."],"bibdata":{"bibtype":"techreport","type":"Prepared for the Diagnostic and Surveillance Directorate","address":"Wellington, New Zealand.","title":"Improving New Zealand's marine biosecurity surveillance programme: A statistical review of biosecurity vectors","url":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/43825-Improving-New-Zealands-marine-biosecurity-surveillance-programme-A-statistical-review-of-biosecurity-vectors","abstract":"The national Marine High-Risk Site Surveillance (MHRSS) programme was established in 2002 to facilitate early detection of non-indigenous marine species (NIS) to New Zealand, including seven marine pests listed on the New Zealand register of Unwanted Organisms at eight “high risk” sites. The selection of these original sites was based on a series of proxy indicators including: • the number of international vessel visits or tonnage of imports from ports where the species were known to occur, • the volume of ballast water discharged from potential source locations, • the availability of habitat within the port or harbour that was suitable for the target species, and • hydrodynamics within the ports that would affect the retention or dispersion of local populations. The MHRSS over time has been expanded and currently 11 “high risk” sites are included in the programme. Since the inception of the MHRSS programme, survey methods for NIS have continually been refined, but there has been no reprioritisation of “high risk” sites at a national scale to account for changes to vessel traffic patterns or behaviour since 2002. Additionally, allocation of survey effort between surveillance sites is only loosely related to the relative likelihood of NIS entry and establishment at each site. Therefore, the development of a systematic statistical likelihood-based methodology that can determine the relative likelihood of exposure of sites to NIS from internationally arriving commercial vessels was developed to inform how the MHRSS programme could be improved. Several historical datasets were used to develop models for predicting ballast water discharge volume and biofouling exposure to the contemporary vessel arrival data (2015-2017) for each port of interest, using K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) and random forests algorithms for ballast water and biofouling, respectively. Tauranga had the highest predicted mean ballast water discharge volume across 2015-2017, followed by New Plymouth, Lyttelton, Taharoa, Napier, Whangarei and Gisborne. Auckland had a low volume of discharge relative to its number of vessels. 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