Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections

Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T., & Schmidt, G. A. Geophysical Research Letters.

Paper doi abstract bibtex

Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyse the performance of climate models published between 1970 and 2007 in projecting future global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes. Models are compared to observations based on both the change in GMST over time and the change in GMST over the change in external forcing. The latter approach accounts for mismatches in model forcings, a potential source of error in model projections independent of the accuracy of model physics. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally-estimated forcings were taken into account.

@article{hausfather_evaluating_nodate,
	title = {Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections},
	volume = {n/a},
	copyright = {This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {1944-8007},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085378},
	doi = {10.1029/2019GL085378},
	abstract = {Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust and independent test of model skill. Here we analyse the performance of climate models published between 1970 and 2007 in projecting future global mean surface temperature (GMST) changes. Models are compared to observations based on both the change in GMST over time and the change in GMST over the change in external forcing. The latter approach accounts for mismatches in model forcings, a potential source of error in model projections independent of the accuracy of model physics. We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally-estimated forcings were taken into account.},
	language = {en},
	number = {n/a},
	urldate = {2019-12-11},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Drake, Henri F. and Abbott, Tristan and Schmidt, Gavin A.}
}

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