Quantitative risk management for energy retrofit projects. Heo, Y., Augenbroe, G., & Choudhary, R. Journal of Building Performance Simulation, 6(4):257-268, 2013.
Quantitative risk management for energy retrofit projects [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
This article presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This article demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the energy service company industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach with standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
@article{doi:10.1080/19401493.2012.706388,
author = { Yeonsook   Heo  and  Godfried   Augenbroe  and  Ruchi   Choudhary },
title = {Quantitative risk management for energy retrofit projects},
journal = {Journal of Building Performance Simulation},
volume = {6},
number = {4},
pages = {257-268},
year = {2013},
doi = {10.1080/19401493.2012.706388},

URL = { 
        http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2012.706388
    
},
eprint = { 
        http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2012.706388
    
}
,
    abstract = { This article presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This article demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the energy service company industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach with standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14. }
}

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