Climate Change as Risk?. Hillerbrand, R. In Roeser, S., Hillerbrand, R., Sandin, P., & Peterson, M., editors, Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk, pages 319–339. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 2012. ![Climate Change as Risk? [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex This chapter analyzes the types of uncertainties involved in climate modeling. It is shown that as regards climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This poses central problems as therefore the well-known elementary as well as probabilistic decision approaches are not applicable. While a maximized-utility approach has to presuppose probability estimates that are not at hand for climate predictions, the precautionary principle is not capable of adequately implementing questions of fairness between different nations or generations. Thus an adequate response to global warming must deal with an intricate interplay between epistemic and ethical considerations. The contribution argues that the epistemic problems involved in modeling the climate system are generic for modeling complex systems. Possible paths for future research to circumvene these problems are adumbrated.
@incollection{hillerbrand_climate_2012,
address = {Dordrecht},
title = {Climate {Change} as {Risk}?},
isbn = {978-94-007-1433-5},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_13},
abstract = {This chapter analyzes the types of uncertainties involved in climate modeling. It is shown that as regards climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This poses central problems as therefore the well-known elementary as well as probabilistic decision approaches are not applicable. While a maximized-utility approach has to presuppose probability estimates that are not at hand for climate predictions, the precautionary principle is not capable of adequately implementing questions of fairness between different nations or generations. Thus an adequate response to global warming must deal with an intricate interplay between epistemic and ethical considerations. The contribution argues that the epistemic problems involved in modeling the climate system are generic for modeling complex systems. Possible paths for future research to circumvene these problems are adumbrated.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2023-08-31},
booktitle = {Handbook of {Risk} {Theory}: {Epistemology}, {Decision} {Theory}, {Ethics}, and {Social} {Implications} of {Risk}},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
author = {Hillerbrand, Rafaela},
editor = {Roeser, Sabine and Hillerbrand, Rafaela and Sandin, Per and Peterson, Martin},
year = {2012},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5_13},
keywords = {Climate System, Global Warming, Precautionary Approach, Precautionary Principle, Subjective Probability},
pages = {319--339},
}
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