Sea-Level Rise Scenarios and Coastal Risk Management. Hinkel, J., Jaeger, C., Nicholls, R. J., Lowe, J., Renn, O., & Peijun, S. 5(3):188–190. ![Sea-Level Rise Scenarios and Coastal Risk Management [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex The IPCC's global mean sea-level rise scenarios do not necessarily provide the right information for coastal decision-making and risk management. [] Global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a major concern for coastal managers and society at large. Since 1988, the IPCC has engaged in a strenuous effort to tackle this kind of challenge at the interface of science and practical decision-making. In this role, the IPCC has recently updated its scenarios of GMSL rise with the release of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). For coastal managers, these scenarios are the most authoritative source of information about future global sea levels, and the coastal chapter of the second Working Group of AR5 (WGII) shows that these scenarios are indeed used widely around the world to assess coastal risk and adaptation1. But for the management of high-risk coastal areas, these scenarios are not the right tools to use, at least not when used exclusively. This should not come as a surprise because the IPCC scenarios are designed from the perspective of the first Working Group of the IPCC (WGI), which aims to understand and reduce uncertainty, a viewpoint that is quite different from the one of coastal management, which aims to reduce risks. Unfortunately, this is not spelled out clearly both within and beyond the IPCC reports.
@article{hinkelSealevelRiseScenarios2015,
title = {Sea-Level Rise Scenarios and Coastal Risk Management},
author = {Hinkel, Jochen and Jaeger, Carlo and Nicholls, Robert J. and Lowe, Jason and Renn, Ortwin and Peijun, Shi},
date = {2015-03},
journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {5},
pages = {188--190},
issn = {1758-678X},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2505},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2505},
abstract = {The IPCC's global mean sea-level rise scenarios do not necessarily provide the right information for coastal decision-making and risk management.
[] Global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a major concern for coastal managers and society at large. Since 1988, the IPCC has engaged in a strenuous effort to tackle this kind of challenge at the interface of science and practical decision-making. In this role, the IPCC has recently updated its scenarios of GMSL rise with the release of its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). For coastal managers, these scenarios are the most authoritative source of information about future global sea levels, and the coastal chapter of the second Working Group of AR5 (WGII) shows that these scenarios are indeed used widely around the world to assess coastal risk and adaptation1. But for the management of high-risk coastal areas, these scenarios are not the right tools to use, at least not when used exclusively. This should not come as a surprise because the IPCC scenarios are designed from the perspective of the first Working Group of the IPCC (WGI), which aims to understand and reduce uncertainty, a viewpoint that is quite different from the one of coastal management, which aims to reduce risks. Unfortunately, this is not spelled out clearly both within and beyond the IPCC reports.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13527487,climate-change,coastline,ipcc-scenarios,risk-management,scenario-analysis,sea-level,uncertainty},
number = {3}
}
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