Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model. Holmes, R. N., Mayer, A., Gutzler, D. S., & Chavira, L. G. Earth Interactions, -1(aop):1–34, July, 2022. Publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Earth Interactions![Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Abstract The Middle Rio Grande is a vital source of water for irrigation in the region. Climate change is impacting regional hydrology and is likely to put additional stress on a water supply that is already stretched thin. To gain insight on the hydrologic effects of climate change on reservoir storage, a simple water balance model was used to simulate the Elephant Butte-Caballo reservoir system (Southern New Mexico, USA). The water balance model was forced by hydrologic inputs generated by 97 climate simulations derived from CMIP5 Global Climate Models, coupled to a surface hydrologic model. Results suggest the percentage of years that reservoir releases satisfy agricultural water rights allocations over the next 50 years (2021-2070) will decrease compared to the past 50 years (1971-2020). The modeling also projects an increase in multi-year drought events that hinder reservoir management strategies to maintain high storage levels. In most cases, changes in reservoir inflows from distant upstream snowmelt is projected to have a greater influence on reservoir storage and water availability downstream of the reservoirs, compared to changes in local evaporation and precipitation from the reservoir surfaces.
@article{holmes_assessing_2022,
title = {Assessing the {Effects} of {Climate} {Change} on {Middle} {Rio} {Grande} {Surface} {Water} {Supplies} {Using} a {Simple} {Water} {Balance} {Reservoir} {Model}},
volume = {-1},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/eint/aop/EI-D-21-0025.1/EI-D-21-0025.1.xml},
doi = {10.1175/EI-D-21-0025.1},
abstract = {Abstract The Middle Rio Grande is a vital source of water for irrigation in the region. Climate change is impacting regional hydrology and is likely to put additional stress on a water supply that is already stretched thin. To gain insight on the hydrologic effects of climate change on reservoir storage, a simple water balance model was used to simulate the Elephant Butte-Caballo reservoir system (Southern New Mexico, USA). The water balance model was forced by hydrologic inputs generated by 97 climate simulations derived from CMIP5 Global Climate Models, coupled to a surface hydrologic model. Results suggest the percentage of years that reservoir releases satisfy agricultural water rights allocations over the next 50 years (2021-2070) will decrease compared to the past 50 years (1971-2020). The modeling also projects an increase in multi-year drought events that hinder reservoir management strategies to maintain high storage levels. In most cases, changes in reservoir inflows from distant upstream snowmelt is projected to have a greater influence on reservoir storage and water availability downstream of the reservoirs, compared to changes in local evaporation and precipitation from the reservoir surfaces.},
language = {EN},
number = {aop},
urldate = {2022-08-01},
journal = {Earth Interactions},
author = {Holmes, Robyn N. and Mayer, Alex and Gutzler, David S. and Chavira, Luis Garnica},
month = jul,
year = {2022},
note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Earth Interactions},
pages = {1--34},
}
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