Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate. Hope, E. S., McKenney, D. W., Pedlar, J. H., Stocks, B. J., & Gauthier, S. 11(8):e0157425+.
Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under \$1 billion (a 60\,% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and \$1.4 billion (119\,% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. [Excerpt: Discussion] Our findings suggest that most Canadian provinces will experience significant increases in both area burned and suppression costs (in 2009 dollars) by the second half of the current century – particularly under RCP 8.5. For the country as a whole, annual suppression costs are projected to increase under RCP 8.5 by over 100\,% by the 2071-2100 period. To put these findings in context, for many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme are projected to become commonplace by century's end. Projections under RCP 2.6 were considerably less dire, providing another rationale for greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, as emission rates are currently tracking close to RCP 8.5 levels. [] [...]
@article{hopeWildfireSuppressionCosts2016,
  title = {Wildfire Suppression Costs for {{Canada}} under a Changing Climate},
  author = {Hope, Emily S. and McKenney, Daniel W. and Pedlar, John H. and Stocks, Brian J. and Gauthier, Sylvie},
  date = {2016-08},
  journaltitle = {PLoS ONE},
  volume = {11},
  pages = {e0157425+},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0157425},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14160210},
  abstract = {Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under \$1 billion (a 60\,\% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and \$1.4 billion (119\,\% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

[Excerpt: Discussion]

Our findings suggest that most Canadian provinces will experience significant increases in both area burned and suppression costs (in 2009 dollars) by the second half of the current century -- particularly under RCP 8.5. For the country as a whole, annual suppression costs are projected to increase under RCP 8.5 by over 100\,\% by the 2071-2100 period. To put these findings in context, for many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme are projected to become commonplace by century's end. Projections under RCP 2.6 were considerably less dire, providing another rationale for greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, as emission rates are currently tracking close to RCP 8.5 levels. [] [...]},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14160210,~to-add-doi-URL,burnt-area,canada,climate-change,climate-moisture-index,rcp26,rcp85,wildfires},
  number = {8}
}
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