Preparing for the Next Global Public Debt Crisis. House, B. In Panel: Beyond Austerity: Default, Debt Restructuring or Recovery?, 2014.
Preparing for the Next Global Public Debt Crisis [pdf]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
Global debt has been driven to high levels in response to the financial crisis. This paper argues that macroeconomic conditions are likely to push debt burdens to even higher ratios across the developed and emerging worlds in the coming years. As the conditions for sovereign debt crises become more endemic, practical, innovative preparations to deal with them should be undertaken to ensure that sovereigns that cannot meet their obligations are able to restructure their debt and return to investing in growth as quickly as possible rather than engaging in protracted imiserating austerity. An agenda of pragmatic, achievable reforms is advocated, including a proposal for a Sovereign Debt Forum (SDF) to facilitate earlier and more efficient engagement between distressed sovereign debtors and their creditors;  greater  issuance  of  sovereign  contingent  convertible  or  “sovereign  cocos”  that  provide   distressed sovereigns with automatic breathing room on their debt obligations; and tweaks to the collective action clauses (CACs) in sovereign debt contracts to make distressed bonds easier to restructure. Each element of this agenda would be strengthened by a larger and more representative International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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