Modeling the Effects of Precipitation on Salamander Demography for Conservation Planning. Howard, J. S. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 2018. abstract bibtex Conservation of natural resources is complex because most human and natural systems are coupled. Integrative conservation planning requires tools that transcend disciplines to understand ecological and human aspects of systems. Southern Appalachia contains exceptional biodiversity which provides ecosystem services across the southeastern United States. The region is rapidly exurbanizing and expected to experience significant climate change. Residential development on mountain slopes is impacting economies, public safety, and ecosystem integrity. To manage natural systems, we need rigorous models identifying areas of current and future suitability for sensitive taxa and understanding of stakeholder perspectives that may affect conservation priorities. Here, I address these needs in the context of salamander ecology and conservation. I reviewed the literature to assess current knowledge of demographic rates for directdeveloping North American Plethodontid salamanders. Some rates are well-documented and transferrable across species, but there are few published estimates of survival, and half, though estimated from field data, may not be realistic. I developed a Bayesian model for an eight-year Plethodon dataset to estimate survival rates and their sensitivity to precipitation. I developed a novel algorithm estimating final clutch size from ovarian follicle counts. I used N-mixture models of repeated counts across a spatial precipitation gradient to estimate precipitationdependent abundance and reproductive rates. I used the survival and reproductive rates to project salamander population growth across the landscape under multiple climate scenarios. Model projections suggest only a small proportion of the region supports consistent positive population growth. Many areas occupied by salamanders likely have limited abundance and depend on source habitats to support local populations. In identifying concerns of stakeholders regarding forest land use, archival and interview sources suggest locals are concerned about economic impacts and regulation of steep slope development, while scientists working in the region are concerned with impacts to biodiversity and natural resources. Nonetheless, participants in a mapping study consistently placed conservation uses at higher elevations than development, suggesting some intrinsic connection between steep slopes and conservation. A map of stakeholder land use priorities and projected population growth rates identified consistencies between areas people prioritized for conservation and areas likely to sustain salamander populations.
@phdthesis{howard_modeling_2018,
address = {Athens, Georgia},
type = {Ph.{D}. {Dissertation}},
title = {Modeling the {Effects} of {Precipitation} on {Salamander} {Demography} for {Conservation} {Planning}},
abstract = {Conservation of natural resources is complex because most human and natural systems are coupled. Integrative conservation planning requires tools that transcend disciplines to understand ecological and human aspects of systems. Southern Appalachia contains exceptional biodiversity which provides ecosystem services across the southeastern United States. The region is rapidly exurbanizing and expected to experience significant climate change. Residential development on mountain slopes is impacting economies, public safety, and ecosystem integrity. To manage natural systems, we need rigorous models identifying areas of current and future suitability for sensitive taxa and understanding of stakeholder perspectives that may affect conservation priorities. Here, I address these needs in the context of salamander ecology and conservation. I reviewed the literature to assess current knowledge of demographic rates for directdeveloping North American Plethodontid salamanders. Some rates are well-documented and transferrable across species, but there are few published estimates of survival, and half, though estimated from field data, may not be realistic. I developed a Bayesian model for an eight-year Plethodon dataset to estimate survival rates and their sensitivity to precipitation. I developed a novel algorithm estimating final clutch size from ovarian follicle counts. I used N-mixture models of repeated counts across a spatial precipitation gradient to estimate precipitationdependent abundance and reproductive rates. I used the survival and reproductive rates to project salamander population growth across the landscape under multiple climate scenarios. Model projections suggest only a small proportion of the region supports consistent positive population growth. Many areas occupied by salamanders likely have limited abundance and depend on source habitats to support local populations. In identifying concerns of stakeholders regarding forest land use, archival and interview sources suggest locals are concerned about economic impacts and regulation of steep slope development, while scientists working in the region are concerned with impacts to biodiversity and natural resources. Nonetheless, participants in a mapping study consistently placed conservation uses at higher elevations than development, suggesting some intrinsic connection between steep slopes and conservation. A map of stakeholder land use priorities and projected population growth rates identified consistencies between areas people prioritized for conservation and areas likely to sustain salamander populations.},
language = {en},
school = {University of Georgia},
author = {Howard, Jillian Sloper},
year = {2018},
}
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To manage natural systems, we need rigorous models identifying areas of current and future suitability for sensitive taxa and understanding of stakeholder perspectives that may affect conservation priorities. Here, I address these needs in the context of salamander ecology and conservation. I reviewed the literature to assess current knowledge of demographic rates for directdeveloping North American Plethodontid salamanders. Some rates are well-documented and transferrable across species, but there are few published estimates of survival, and half, though estimated from field data, may not be realistic. I developed a Bayesian model for an eight-year Plethodon dataset to estimate survival rates and their sensitivity to precipitation. I developed a novel algorithm estimating final clutch size from ovarian follicle counts. I used N-mixture models of repeated counts across a spatial precipitation gradient to estimate precipitationdependent abundance and reproductive rates. I used the survival and reproductive rates to project salamander population growth across the landscape under multiple climate scenarios. Model projections suggest only a small proportion of the region supports consistent positive population growth. Many areas occupied by salamanders likely have limited abundance and depend on source habitats to support local populations. In identifying concerns of stakeholders regarding forest land use, archival and interview sources suggest locals are concerned about economic impacts and regulation of steep slope development, while scientists working in the region are concerned with impacts to biodiversity and natural resources. Nonetheless, participants in a mapping study consistently placed conservation uses at higher elevations than development, suggesting some intrinsic connection between steep slopes and conservation. 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The region is rapidly exurbanizing and expected to experience significant climate change. Residential development on mountain slopes is impacting economies, public safety, and ecosystem integrity. To manage natural systems, we need rigorous models identifying areas of current and future suitability for sensitive taxa and understanding of stakeholder perspectives that may affect conservation priorities. Here, I address these needs in the context of salamander ecology and conservation. I reviewed the literature to assess current knowledge of demographic rates for directdeveloping North American Plethodontid salamanders. Some rates are well-documented and transferrable across species, but there are few published estimates of survival, and half, though estimated from field data, may not be realistic. I developed a Bayesian model for an eight-year Plethodon dataset to estimate survival rates and their sensitivity to precipitation. I developed a novel algorithm estimating final clutch size from ovarian follicle counts. I used N-mixture models of repeated counts across a spatial precipitation gradient to estimate precipitationdependent abundance and reproductive rates. I used the survival and reproductive rates to project salamander population growth across the landscape under multiple climate scenarios. Model projections suggest only a small proportion of the region supports consistent positive population growth. Many areas occupied by salamanders likely have limited abundance and depend on source habitats to support local populations. In identifying concerns of stakeholders regarding forest land use, archival and interview sources suggest locals are concerned about economic impacts and regulation of steep slope development, while scientists working in the region are concerned with impacts to biodiversity and natural resources. 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