Simulating Geographic Transport Network Expansion through Individual Investments. Jacobs-Crisioni, C. G. W. In Jacobs-Crisioni, C. G. W., Rietveld, P., Scholten, H. J., & Koomen, E., editors, Spatial Data Analyses of Urban Land Use and Accessibility, pages 93–133. Vrije Universiteit.
Simulating Geographic Transport Network Expansion through Individual Investments [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
This chapter introduces a GIS-based model that simulates the geographical expansion of transport networks by several decision makers with varying objectives. The model progressively adds extensions to a growing network by choosing the most attractive investments from a limited choice set. Attractiveness is defined as a function of variables in which revenue and broader societal benefits may play a role and can be based on empirically underpinned parameters that may differ according to private or public interests. The choice set is selected from an exhaustive set of links and presumably contains those investment options that best meet private operator's objectives by balancing the revenues of additional fare against construction costs. The investment options consist of geographically plausible routes with potential detours. These routes are generated using a fine meshed regularly latticed network and shortest-path finding methods. Additionally, two indicators of the geographic accuracy of the simulated networks are introduced. A historical case study is presented to demonstrate the model's first results. These results show that the modelled networks reproduce relevant results of the historically built network with reasonable accuracy. [Excerpt: Introduction] [...] Although it is known that transport network expansion may follow a clear rationale, largely based on e.g. expected transport flows versus costs (Rietveld & Bruinsma 1998; Xie & Levinson 2011), relatively little is known about how economic and institutional conditions affect transport network expansion. This is partially because, in contrast with other instruments available to transport planners such as land-use and transport demand models, ex-ante models of transport network expansion are few and they are hardly ever empirically validated. [...] [] The aim of this paper is to introduce Transport Link Scanner (TLS), an agent-based model that simulates the overall geographic diffusion of a transport network through the individual investment decisions that drive network expansion, and to demonstrate that it is able to reproduce a historical network expansion process reasonably accurate. The model allows the inclusion of multiple decision makers with varying objectives; institutional conditions and the level of cooperation between decision makers can be explicitly modelled. A novel heuristic method is integrated to generate the plausible geographic paths of potential investments that aim to maximise fares. It does so in a manner that is consistent with the model's transport demand module and is responsive to previously selected links. [...] [] [...] this model is programmed in the Geo Data and Model Server (GeoDMS) software (ObjectVision 2014)[...]. It is an opensource platform that interprets scripts into a sequence of operations, and executes these operations on dynamically defined C++ arrays. Just like geospatial semantic array programming tools such as the Mastrave library (de Rigo et al. 2013), GeoDMS adheres to large scale modelling and assessment tasks. The major advantages of using GeoDMS for the work presented in this paper are considerable gains in computation speed, reproducibility of modelling steps, flexibility and control over data operations, and straightforward links between various data types such as raster and vector type spatial data. The TLS program and the data that have been used for this paper are freely available through http://www.jacobscrisioni.nl/publications/download_tls . [] [...] [Closing remarks] [] This paper presents Transport Link Scanner, a model that simulates the expansion of transport networks. Based on a conditional logit method the model repeatedly selects one most attractive link from a choice set to add to the expanding network. That choice set is generated using heuristics with the goal to obtain a limited set of relevant, geographically plausible links. The model outlined in this paper explicitly allows the empirical estimation of preferences in a context with multiple actors with possibly different characteristics. It allows to test, amongst others, the impact of investor preferences, transport revenue structures and network effects on the final outcomes of a transport network. [] A practical application of the model is presented as well. This exercise focuses on the expansion of the Dutch railway network in the 19th and early 20th century and compares the model's accuracy with a previous attempt by Rietveld and Bruinsma (1998). The results presented show that the early expansion of the Dutch railway network is simulated by TLS with similar accuracy as by Rietveld and Bruinsma, without the necessity of an a-priori selection of connectable cities. The results corroborate findings that transport network expansion follows a clear rationale (Rietveld & Bruinsma 1998; Xie & Levinson 2011; Levinson et al. 2012), show that the modelling rationale can simulate network expansion processes with some success, and illustrate that institutional and economic settings may have a profound effect on network expansion outcomes. Future research may be necessary to further improve the accuracy of the model and measure its performance in terms of characteristic spatial network metrics (Rodrigue et al. 2006). One other useful addition would be the inclusion of socially optimal networks (Li et al. 2010) that would enable exploration of how competitive investment decisions can be directed towards social optima (Anshelevich et al. 2003). Nevertheless, we conclude that the model appears to become a useful tool for academic studies and policy evaluations. [] [...]
@incollection{jacobs-crisioniSimulatingGeographicTransport2016,
  title = {Simulating Geographic Transport Network Expansion through Individual Investments},
  booktitle = {Spatial Data Analyses of Urban Land Use and Accessibility},
  author = {Jacobs-Crisioni, C. G. W.},
  editor = {Jacobs-Crisioni, C. G. W. and Rietveld, P. and Scholten, H. J. and Koomen, E.},
  date = {2016},
  pages = {93--133},
  publisher = {{Vrije Universiteit}},
  location = {{Amsterdam}},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14385671},
  abstract = {This chapter introduces a GIS-based model that simulates the geographical expansion of transport networks by several decision makers with varying objectives. The model progressively adds extensions to a growing network by choosing the most attractive investments from a limited choice set. Attractiveness is defined as a function of variables in which revenue and broader societal benefits may play a role and can be based on empirically underpinned parameters that may differ according to private or public interests. The choice set is selected from an exhaustive set of links and presumably contains those investment options that best meet private operator's objectives by balancing the revenues of additional fare against construction costs. The investment options consist of geographically plausible routes with potential detours. These routes are generated using a fine meshed regularly latticed network and shortest-path finding methods. Additionally, two indicators of the geographic accuracy of the simulated networks are introduced. A historical case study is presented to demonstrate the model's first results. These results show that the modelled networks reproduce relevant results of the historically built network with reasonable accuracy.

[Excerpt: Introduction] 

[...] Although it is known that transport network expansion may follow a clear rationale, largely based on e.g. expected transport flows versus costs (Rietveld \& Bruinsma 1998; Xie \& Levinson 2011), relatively little is known about how economic and institutional conditions affect transport network expansion. This is partially because, in contrast with other instruments available to transport planners such as land-use and transport demand models, ex-ante models of transport network expansion are few and they are hardly ever empirically validated. [...]

[] The aim of this paper is to introduce Transport Link Scanner (TLS), an agent-based model that simulates the overall geographic diffusion of a transport network through the individual investment decisions that drive network expansion, and to demonstrate that it is able to reproduce a historical network expansion process reasonably accurate. The model allows the inclusion of multiple decision makers with varying objectives; institutional conditions and the level of cooperation between decision makers can be explicitly modelled. A novel heuristic method is integrated to generate the plausible geographic paths of potential investments that aim to maximise fares. It does so in a manner that is consistent with the model's transport demand module and is responsive to previously selected links. [...]

[] [...] this model is programmed in the Geo Data and Model Server (GeoDMS) software (ObjectVision 2014)[...]. It is an opensource platform that interprets scripts into a sequence of operations, and executes these operations on dynamically defined C++ arrays. Just like geospatial semantic array programming tools such as the Mastrave library (de Rigo et al. 2013), GeoDMS adheres to large scale modelling and assessment tasks. The major advantages of using GeoDMS for the work presented in this paper are considerable gains in computation speed, reproducibility of modelling steps, flexibility and control over data operations, and straightforward links between various data types such as raster and vector type spatial data. The TLS program and the data that have been used for this paper are freely available through http://www.jacobscrisioni.nl/publications/download\_tls .

[] [...]

[Closing remarks]

[] This paper presents Transport Link Scanner, a model that simulates the expansion of transport networks. Based on a conditional logit method the model repeatedly selects one most attractive link from a choice set to add to the expanding network. That choice set is generated using heuristics with the goal to obtain a limited set of relevant, geographically plausible links. The model outlined in this paper explicitly allows the empirical estimation of preferences in a context with multiple actors with possibly different characteristics. It allows to test, amongst others, the impact of investor preferences, transport revenue structures and network effects on the final outcomes of a transport network. 

[] A practical application of the model is presented as well. This exercise focuses on the expansion of the Dutch railway network in the 19th and early 20th century and compares the model's accuracy with a previous attempt by Rietveld and Bruinsma (1998). The results presented show that the early expansion of the Dutch railway network is simulated by TLS with similar accuracy as by Rietveld and Bruinsma, without the necessity of an a-priori selection of connectable cities. The results corroborate findings that transport network expansion follows a clear rationale (Rietveld \& Bruinsma 1998; Xie \& Levinson 2011; Levinson et al. 2012), show that the modelling rationale can simulate network expansion processes with some success, and illustrate that institutional and economic settings may have a profound effect on network expansion outcomes. Future research may be necessary to further improve the accuracy of the model and measure its performance in terms of characteristic spatial network metrics (Rodrigue et al. 2006). One other useful addition would be the inclusion of socially optimal networks (Li et al. 2010) that would enable exploration of how competitive investment decisions can be directed towards social optima (Anshelevich et al. 2003). Nevertheless, we conclude that the model appears to become a useful tool for academic studies and policy evaluations.

[] [...]},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14385671,accessibility,land-use,long-range-transport,modelling,networks,spatial-analysis,spatial-pattern,transport,urban-areas}
}
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