Development and Validation of a Prognostic Score to Predict Mortality in Patients with Acute on Chronic Liver Failure. Jalan, R., Saliba, F., Pavesi, M., Amoros, A., Moreau, R., Ginès, P., Levesque, E., Durand, F., Angeli, P., Caraceni, P., Hopf, C., Alessandria, C., Rodriguez, E., Solis-Muñoz, P., Laleman, W., Trebicka, J., Zeuzem, S., Gustot, T., Mookerjee, R., Elkrief, L., Soriano, G., Cordoba, J., Morando, F., Gerbes, A., Agarwal, B., Samuel, D., Bernardi, M., Arroyo, V., & for the CANONIC study investigators of the EASL-CLIF Consortium Journal of Hepatology, June, 2014.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence) characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. METHODS: Data from 1,349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF-Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) to diagnose ACLF was developed using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white-cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF CONSORTIUM score for ACLF, CLIF-C ACLFs). Concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLFs, MELD (MELDs), MELD-Sodium (MELD-Nas) and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. RESULTS: CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all the main time-points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180 and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 hours, 3-7 days and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients.
@article{jalan_development_2014,
	title = {Development and {Validation} of a {Prognostic} {Score} to {Predict} {Mortality} in {Patients} with {Acute} on {Chronic} {Liver} {Failure}},
	issn = {1600-0641},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhep.2014.06.012},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND \& AIMS: Acute-on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30\% prevalence) characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients.
METHODS: Data from 1,349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF-Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) to diagnose ACLF was developed using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white-cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF CONSORTIUM score for ACLF, CLIF-C ACLFs). Concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLFs, MELD (MELDs), MELD-Sodium (MELD-Nas) and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use.
RESULTS: CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas and CPs, reducing (19-28\%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all the main time-points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180 and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 hours, 3-7 days and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS: CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients.},
	language = {ENG},
	journal = {Journal of Hepatology},
	author = {Jalan, Rajiv and Saliba, Faouzi and Pavesi, Marco and Amoros, Alex and Moreau, Richard and Ginès, Pere and Levesque, Eric and Durand, Francois and Angeli, Paolo and Caraceni, Paolo and Hopf, Corinna and Alessandria, Carlo and Rodriguez, Ezequiel and Solis-Muñoz, Pablo and Laleman, Wim and Trebicka, Jonel and Zeuzem, Stefan and Gustot, Thierry and Mookerjee, Rajeshwar and Elkrief, Laure and Soriano, German and Cordoba, Joan and Morando, Filippo and Gerbes, Alexander and Agarwal, Banwari and Samuel, Didier and Bernardi, Mauro and Arroyo, Vicente and {for the CANONIC study investigators of the EASL-CLIF Consortium}},
	month = jun,
	year = {2014},
}

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