Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change. Jorgenson, M. T., Romanovsky, V., Harden, J., Shur, Y., O'Donnell, J., Schuur, E. A. G., Kanevskiy, M., & Marchenko, S. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere, 40(7):1219–1236, July, 2010.
Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 degrees C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20 degrees C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying conditions on mean annual surface temperatures (MASTs) and 2 m deep temperatures (MADTs) through modeling. Surface water had the largest effect, with water sediment temperatures being similar to 10 degrees C above MAAT. A 50% reduction in snow depth reduces MADT by 2 degrees C. Elevation changes between 200 and 800 m increases MAAT by up to 2.3 degrees C and snow depths by similar to 40%. Aspect caused only a similar to 1 degrees C difference in MAST. Covarying vegetation structure, organic matter thickness, soil moisture, and snow depth of terrestrial ecosystems, ranging from barren silt to white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) forest to tussock shrub, affect MASTs by similar to 6 degrees C and MADTs by similar to 7 degrees C. Groundwater at 2-7 degrees C greatly affects lateral and internal permafrost thawing. Analyses show that vegetation succession provides strong negative feedbacks that make permafrost resilient to even large increases in air temperatures. Surface water, which is affected by topography and ground ice, provides even stronger negative feedbacks that make permafrost vulnerable to thawing even under cold temperatures.
@article{jorgenson_resilience_2010,
	title = {Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0045-5067},
	url = {://000281208900004},
	doi = {10.1139/x10-060},
	abstract = {The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 degrees C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20 degrees C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying conditions on mean annual surface temperatures (MASTs) and 2 m deep temperatures (MADTs) through modeling. Surface water had the largest effect, with water sediment temperatures being similar to 10 degrees C above MAAT. A 50\% reduction in snow depth reduces MADT by 2 degrees C. Elevation changes between 200 and 800 m increases MAAT by up to 2.3 degrees C and snow depths by similar to 40\%. Aspect caused only a similar to 1 degrees C difference in MAST. Covarying vegetation structure, organic matter thickness, soil moisture, and snow depth of terrestrial ecosystems, ranging from barren silt to white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) forest to tussock shrub, affect MASTs by similar to 6 degrees C and MADTs by similar to 7 degrees C. Groundwater at 2-7 degrees C greatly affects lateral and internal permafrost thawing. Analyses show that vegetation succession provides strong negative feedbacks that make permafrost resilient to even large increases in air temperatures. Surface water, which is affected by topography and ground ice, provides even stronger negative feedbacks that make permafrost vulnerable to thawing even under cold temperatures.},
	number = {7},
	journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere},
	author = {Jorgenson, M. T. and Romanovsky, V. and Harden, J. and Shur, Y. and O'Donnell, J. and Schuur, E. A. G. and Kanevskiy, M. and Marchenko, S.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1219--1236},
}

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