Habitat-Based Predictions of Bridle Shiner (Notropis bifrenatus) in the Northeastern United States. Katz, L. S., Coghlan Jr., S. M., Carpenter, M. A., Kinnison, M. T., & Zydlewski, J. D. Ecology and Evolution, 16(1):e72413, 2026. _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.72413![Habitat-Based Predictions of Bridle Shiner (Notropis bifrenatus) in the Northeastern United States [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex We sought to assess bridle shiner (Notropis bifrenatus) habitat associations at local and regional scales across southern Maine and New Hampshire. We used local habitat data at 95 Maine sites to predict occupancy with classification and regression trees (CART). We then used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to model the historical (1898–2008) and current (2009–2022) ranges of the species. We used the BIOMOD platform to model the association between 35 environmental variables and bridle shiner presence during both time periods and at fine (pseudo-HUC14) and coarse (HUC12) spatial scales. We then calculated the change in predicted occupied drainages to estimate the change in the species' distribution at both scales. Within a site, bridle shiners were associated with submerged aquatic vegetation, organic substrate, and watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spp.). SDMs revealed an association with Appalachian (Hemlock-)Northern Hardwood Forest, sand substrate, and low-elevation terrain (at both spatial scales). Ensemble fine-scale SDMs suggest a substantial loss of historical bridle shiner habitat in both Maine (36% of drainages) and New Hampshire (16%), with comparable described losses (of 21% and 14%) at a coarse scale. Our local and regional models may be used to focus surveys on areas with high predicted habitat suitability or to inform habitat restoration efforts.
@article{katz_habitat-based_2026,
title = {Habitat-{Based} {Predictions} of {Bridle} {Shiner} ({Notropis} bifrenatus) in the {Northeastern} {United} {States}},
volume = {16},
copyright = {© 2026 The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by British Ecological Society and John Wiley \& Sons Ltd.},
issn = {2045-7758},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.72413},
doi = {10.1002/ece3.72413},
abstract = {We sought to assess bridle shiner (Notropis bifrenatus) habitat associations at local and regional scales across southern Maine and New Hampshire. We used local habitat data at 95 Maine sites to predict occupancy with classification and regression trees (CART). We then used ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to model the historical (1898–2008) and current (2009–2022) ranges of the species. We used the BIOMOD platform to model the association between 35 environmental variables and bridle shiner presence during both time periods and at fine (pseudo-HUC14) and coarse (HUC12) spatial scales. We then calculated the change in predicted occupied drainages to estimate the change in the species' distribution at both scales. Within a site, bridle shiners were associated with submerged aquatic vegetation, organic substrate, and watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spp.). SDMs revealed an association with Appalachian (Hemlock-)Northern Hardwood Forest, sand substrate, and low-elevation terrain (at both spatial scales). Ensemble fine-scale SDMs suggest a substantial loss of historical bridle shiner habitat in both Maine (36\% of drainages) and New Hampshire (16\%), with comparable described losses (of 21\% and 14\%) at a coarse scale. Our local and regional models may be used to focus surveys on areas with high predicted habitat suitability or to inform habitat restoration efforts.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2026-05-27},
journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
author = {Katz, Lara S. and Coghlan Jr., Stephen M. and Carpenter, Matthew A. and Kinnison, Michael T. and Zydlewski, Joseph D.},
year = {2026},
note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.72413},
keywords = {Terrestrial Ecoregions (Wiken 2011)},
pages = {e72413},
}
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