Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice. Kayser & Andreas, M. American Journal of Political Science, 53(4):950--970, 2009. abstract bibtex Pundits have often claimed, but scholars have never found, that partisan swings in the vote abroad predict electoral fortunes at home. Employing semiannual Eurobarometer data on vote intention in eight European countries, this article provides statistical evidence of international comovement in partisan vote intention and its provenance in international business cycles. Electoral support for “luxury parties,” those parties associated with higher spending and taxation, covaries across countries together with the business cycle. Both the domestic and international components of at least one economic aggregate—unemployment—prove a strong predictor of shifts in domestic vote intention. Globalization, by driving business cycle integration, is also synchronizing partisan cycles.
@article{ kayser_partisan_2009,
title = {Partisan {Waves}: {International} {Business} {Cycles} and {Electoral} {Choice}},
volume = {53},
abstract = {Pundits have often claimed, but scholars have never found, that partisan swings in the vote abroad predict electoral fortunes at home. Employing semiannual Eurobarometer data on vote intention in eight European countries, this article provides statistical evidence of international comovement in partisan vote intention and its provenance in international business cycles. Electoral support for “luxury parties,” those parties associated with higher spending and taxation, covaries across countries together with the business cycle. Both the domestic and international components of at least one economic aggregate—unemployment—prove a strong predictor of shifts in domestic vote intention. Globalization, by driving business cycle integration, is also synchronizing partisan cycles.},
number = {4},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
author = {Kayser, Mark Andreas},
year = {2009},
keywords = {_substantive_research, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Great Britain, international economy structuring domestic politics, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands},
pages = {950--970}
}
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