Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Keller, K.; Bolker, B. M; and Bradford, D. F Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48(1):723–741, July, 2004.
Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
We explore the combined effects of a climate threshold (a potential ocean thermohaline circulation collapse), parameter uncertainty, and learning in an optimal economic growth model. Our analysis shows that significantly reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may be justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain and irreversible climate change—even when future learning about the system is considered. Parameter uncertainty about the threshold specific damages and the CO2level triggering a threshold can act to decrease near-term CO2 abatements that maximize expected utility.
@article{keller_uncertain_2004,
	title = {Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth},
	volume = {48},
	issn = {00950696},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069603001244},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2003.10.003},
	abstract = {We explore the combined effects of a climate threshold (a potential ocean thermohaline circulation collapse), parameter uncertainty, and learning in an optimal economic growth model. Our analysis shows that significantly reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may be justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain and irreversible climate change—even when future learning about the system is considered. Parameter uncertainty about the threshold specific damages and the CO2level triggering a threshold can act to decrease near-term CO2 abatements that maximize expected utility.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2017-05-24},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
	author = {Keller, Klaus and Bolker, Benjamin M and Bradford, David F},
	month = jul,
	year = {2004},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
	pages = {723--741}
}
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