Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., & Fowler, H. J. Nature Climate Change, 4(June):1--7, 2014. ![Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex The intensification of precipitation extremes with climate change1 is of key importance to society as a result of the large impact through flooding. Observations show that heavy rainfall is increasing on daily timescales in many regions2 , but how changes will manifest themselves on sub-daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here we perform the first climate change experiments with a very high resolution (1.5km grid spacing) model more typically used for weather forecasting, in this instance for a region of the UK. The model simulates realistic hourly rainfall characteristics, including extremes3,4 , unlike coarser resolution climate models5,6 , giving us confidence in its ability to project future changes at this timescale.We find the 1.5km model shows increases in hourly rainfall intensities in winter, consistent with projections from a coarser 12km resolution model and previous studies at the daily timescale7 . However, the 1.5km model also shows a future intensification of short-duration rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding.We conclude that accurate representation of the local storm dynamics is an essential requirement for predicting changes to convective extremes; when included we find for the model here that summer downpours intensify with warming. Few
@article{ Kendon2014,
author = {Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Roberts, Nigel M. and Fowler, H. J.},
title = {{Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather
forecast resolution model}},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
year = {2014},
volume = {4},
pages = {1--7},
number = {June},
abstract = {The intensification of precipitation extremes with climate change1
is of key importance to society as a result of the large impact through
flooding. Observations show that heavy rainfall is increasing on
daily timescales in many regions2 , but how changes will manifest
themselves on sub-daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here
we perform the first climate change experiments with a very high
resolution (1.5km grid spacing) model more typically used for weather
forecasting, in this instance for a region of the UK. The model simulates
realistic hourly rainfall characteristics, including extremes3,4
, unlike coarser resolution climate models5,6 , giving us confidence
in its ability to project future changes at this timescale.We find
the 1.5km model shows increases in hourly rainfall intensities in
winter, consistent with projections from a coarser 12km resolution
model and previous studies at the daily timescale7 . However, the
1.5km model also shows a future intensification of short-duration
rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high
thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding.We conclude that
accurate representation of the local storm dynamics is an essential
requirement for predicting changes to convective extremes; when included
we find for the model here that summer downpours intensify with warming.
Few},
doi = {10.1038/NCLIMATE2258},
file = {:Users/reinhard/Documents/articles/mendeley/Kendon, Roberts, Fowler. 2014. Nature Climate Change.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1758-6798},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2258.html?message-global=remove}
}
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The model simulates realistic hourly rainfall characteristics, including extremes3,4 , unlike coarser resolution climate models5,6 , giving us confidence in its ability to project future changes at this timescale.We find the 1.5km model shows increases in hourly rainfall intensities in winter, consistent with projections from a coarser 12km resolution model and previous studies at the daily timescale7 . However, the 1.5km model also shows a future intensification of short-duration rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding.We conclude that accurate representation of the local storm dynamics is an essential requirement for predicting changes to convective extremes; when included we find for the model here that summer downpours intensify with warming. Few","author":["Kendon, Elizabeth J.","Roberts, Nigel M.","Fowler, H. 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