A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Kermack, W. & McKendrick, A. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 115(772):700–721, 1927.
bibtex   
@article{kermack1927contribution,
  title={A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics},
  author={Kermack, WO and McKendrick, AG},
  journal={Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.},
  volume={115},
  number={772},
  pages={700--721},
  year={1927},
}

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