The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Kreibich, H., Van Loon, A. F., Schröter, K., Ward, P. J., Mazzoleni, M., Sairam, N., Abeshu, G. W., Agafonova, S., AghaKouchak, A., Aksoy, H., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Aznar, B., Balkhi, L., Barendrecht, M. H., Biancamaria, S., Bos-Burgering, L., Bradley, C., Budiyono, Y., Buytaert, W., Capewell, L., Carlson, H., Cavus, Y., Couasnon, A., Coxon, G., Daliakopoulos, I., de Ruiter, M. C., Delus, C., Erfurt, M., Esposito, G., François, D., Frappart, F., Freer, J., Frolova, N., Gain, A. K., Grillakis, M., Grima, J. O., Guzmán, D. A., Huning, L. S., Ionita, M., Kharlamov, M., Khoi, D. N., Kieboom, N., Kireeva, M., Koutroulis, A., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Li, H., LLasat, M. C., Macdonald, D., Mård, J., Mathew-Richards, H., McKenzie, A., Mejia, A., Mendiondo, E. M., Mens, M., Mobini, S., Mohor, G. S., Nagavciuc, V., Ngo-Duc, T., Nguyen Huynh, T. T., Nhi, P. T. T., Petrucci, O., Quan Nguyen, H., Quintana-Seguí, P., Razavi, S., Ridolfi, E., Riegel, J., Sadik, M. S., Savelli, E., Sazonov, A., Sharma, S., Sörensen, J., Souza, F. A. A., Stahl, K., Steinhausen, M., Stoelzle, M., Szalińska, W., Tang, Q., Tian, F., Tokarczyk, T., Tovar, C., Tran, T. V. T., Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vorogushyn, S., Wagener, T., Wang, Y., Wendt, D. E., Wickham, E., Yang, L., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Blöschl, G., & Di Baldassarre, G. Nature, 608(7921):80–86, 2022.
doi abstract bibtex

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change

@article{kreibich_challenge_2022,
title = {The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management},
volume = {608},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5},
abstract = {Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change},
number = {7921},
journal = {Nature},
author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Van Loon, Anne F. and Schröter, Kai and Ward, Philip J. and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Sairam, Nivedita and Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho and Agafonova, Svetlana and AghaKouchak, Amir and Aksoy, Hafzullah and Alvarez-Garreton, Camila and Aznar, Blanca and Balkhi, Laila and Barendrecht, Marlies H. and Biancamaria, Sylvain and Bos-Burgering, Liduin and Bradley, Chris and Budiyono, Yus and Buytaert, Wouter and Capewell, Lucinda and Carlson, Hayley and Cavus, Yonca and Couasnon, Anaïs and Coxon, Gemma and Daliakopoulos, Ioannis and de Ruiter, Marleen C. and Delus, Claire and Erfurt, Mathilde and Esposito, Giuseppe and François, Didier and Frappart, Frédéric and Freer, Jim and Frolova, Natalia and Gain, Animesh K. and Grillakis, Manolis and Grima, Jordi Oriol and Guzmán, Diego A. and Huning, Laurie S. and Ionita, Monica and Kharlamov, Maxim and Khoi, Dao Nguyen and Kieboom, Natalie and Kireeva, Maria and Koutroulis, Aristeidis and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Li, Hong-Yi and LLasat, María Carmen and Macdonald, David and Mård, Johanna and Mathew-Richards, Hannah and McKenzie, Andrew and Mejia, Alfonso and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario and Mens, Marjolein and Mobini, Shifteh and Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Ngo-Duc, Thanh and Nguyen Huynh, Thi Thao and Nhi, Pham Thi Thao and Petrucci, Olga and Quan Nguyen, Hong and Quintana-Seguí, Pere and Razavi, Saman and Ridolfi, Elena and Riegel, Jannik and Sadik, Md Shibly and Savelli, Elisa and Sazonov, Alexey and Sharma, Sanjib and Sörensen, Johanna and Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello and Stahl, Kerstin and Steinhausen, Max and Stoelzle, Michael and Szalińska, Wiwiana and Tang, Qiuhong and Tian, Fuqiang and Tokarczyk, Tamara and Tovar, Carolina and Tran, Thi Van Thu and Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J. and van Vliet, Michelle T. H. and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Wagener, Thorsten and Wang, Yueling and Wendt, Doris E. and Wickham, Elliot and Yang, Long and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. and Blöschl, Günter and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano},
year = {2022},
pages = {80--86},
}

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