The Reference Class. Kyburg, J. & E., H. Philosophy of Science, 50(3):374--397, 1983.
bibtex   
@article{ refclass,
  author = {Kyburg, Jr., Henry E.},
  journal = {Philosophy of Science},
  number = {3},
  pages = {374--397},
  title = {The Reference Class},
  volume = {50},
  year = {1983}
}

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