GECO 2015 - Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris. Labat, A., Kitous, A., Perry, M., Saveyn, B., Vandyck, T., & Vrontisi, V.
GECO 2015 - Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs. [Excerpt: Executive summary] [::] The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) shows that it is possible to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C but it will require strong, immediate and collective global effort. [::] In 2013 at the COP19 in Warsaw, Ministers agreed to present intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to a possible new agreement well in advance of COP21 in Paris in 2015, and by the first quarter of 2015 for those countries in position to do so. [::] In October 2014, the European Council EU leaders endorsed the 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework, with a binding headline domestic greenhouse gas emission reduction target of at least 40\,% compared to 1990. [::] On 25 February 2015, the European Commission has set out the EU's vision for the new global climate change agreement due to be adopted in Paris in December 2015 with its Communication, "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU's Energy Union package. The Communication highlights that the EU is seeking a transparent and dynamic legally binding agreement, containing fair and ambitious commitments from all Parties based on evolving global economic and geopolitical circumstances. The Communication also calls for commitments that collectively put the world on track to reduce global emissions by at least 60\,% below 2010 levels by 2050. [::] The European Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the Communication 'The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020' gives analytical results based on the latest available science. This report presents more details on the Baseline and Global Mitigation scenarios quoted in the Staff Working Document using the POLES and GEM-E3 models. [::] The POLES and GEM-E3 models are used to explore possible ways to deliver global efforts to stay below 2°C through processes established in the run-up to Paris COP21. This report explores a combination of domestically determined mitigation targets for the period beyond 2020 respecting the below 2°C objective, differentiated according to national capabilities and based on the most recent estimates of the effects of the current pre-2020 pledges and policies. This report also explores how a framework of international collaboration could enhance further the domestic mitigation contributions. [::] The modelling results confirm that all major economies and regions can define domestic mitigation goals in line with 2°C, based on their current policy experiences, and that the institutions and mechanisms put in place under the Climate Convention framework can be mobilised to deliver enhanced climate and economic benefits, especially for the countries with less capabilities. [::] The modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 brings out a number of findings consistent with other recent model based analysis to support the preparation of the Paris agreement [::1] The scenario of Global Mitigation action in line with staying below 2°C requires a significant transformation across all global regions, and at global level they correspond to large-scale changes compared to the Baseline scenario. [...] [::2] Global Mitigation action is taking place in a context of various independent evolutions of global energy markets and under a persisting diversity across countries and regions. Climate action can be differentiated and tailored to these evolutions. [::3] For each country, engaging in Global Mitigation action is a long-term structural challenge involving shifts in investments, trade flows, and key sectors of the economy. [...] [::4] The efforts that countries are taking to engage in global climate action in line with 2°C are also delivering benefits in terms of improving energy security (reducing the burden of fossil fuel imports for net consumers, as well as diversifying the energy trade for some energy exporters); improving productivity and diversifying the economy (some sectors like equipment goods or services increase their weight and trade). [...] [::5] The modelling framework that we used in this analysis concentrates on emissions from energy and industrial processes. While agriculture and land use are also included, mitigation trends and opportunities in this area rely on other studies which consider these sectors in greater detail. [...] [::] Overall, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages some specific policy developments at global level: [::1 Creating a long-term, dynamic agreement, perceived as fair and effective by all] To stay below 2°C will require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by all countries. [...] [::2 Creating the confidence needed for global investment and climate action] The GEM-E3 results indicate that the global transition to low-emissions can be achieved without compromising growth and jobs. [...] [::3 Managing the transition in the period 2020-2030] This modelling work takes conservative assumptions for the period up to 2020 factoring in the countries' efforts to implement their pre-2020 pledges and policies in place; countries could still deliver additional reductions through collaborations in specific sectors, like to reduce F-gases or additional policies. [...] [::] Furthermore, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages some specific policy developments at regional level: [::1] Country-specific mitigation objectives, in all regions, should relate to the long-term global goal to stay below 2°C, to add up to the emission reductions needed at global level. [...] [::2] Along country-specific pathways in the Global Mitigation scenario, multiple sectors realise emission cuts by 2020, 2025, 2030; and ultimately, by 2050 all sources of emissions contribute to mitigation. [...] [::3] Countries and regions have to aim for low levels of emissions and per capita emissions (to a global average of 4.5tCO2e/cap by 2030 and below 2tCO2e/cap by 2050). [...] [::4] By design, in the Global Mitigation scenario the countries with the highest responsibilities and capabilities need to deliver the most ambitious mitigation objectives, whereas countries with capacity constraints are not expected to contribute as much. [...] [::5] The modelling by POLES highlights that under the Global Mitigation scenario, investments are shifting at large scale in the power sector and all countries diversify their energy mix in the period 2020-2030 with significant investment implications and associated benefits for energy security. [...] [::] Finally, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages further development of the analytical framework to support the implementation of low-emission development strategies across regions and at global level.
@article{labatGECO2015Global2015,
  title = {{{GECO}} 2015 - {{Global}} Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to {{Paris}}},
  author = {Labat, Ariane and Kitous, Alban and Perry, Miles and Saveyn, Bert and Vandyck, Toon and Vrontisi, Voi},
  date = {2015},
  volume = {EUR 27239 EN},
  issn = {1831-9424},
  doi = {10.2791/198028},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14038548},
  abstract = {This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.

[Excerpt: Executive summary]

[::] The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) shows that it is possible to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C but it will require strong, immediate and collective global effort.

[::] In 2013 at the COP19 in Warsaw, Ministers agreed to present intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to a possible new agreement well in advance of COP21 in Paris in 2015, and by the first quarter of 2015 for those countries in position to do so.

[::] In October 2014, the European Council EU leaders endorsed the 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework, with a binding headline domestic greenhouse gas emission reduction target of at least 40\,\% compared to 1990.

[::] On 25 February 2015, the European Commission has set out the EU's vision for the new global climate change agreement due to be adopted in Paris in December 2015 with its Communication, "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU's Energy Union package. The Communication highlights that the EU is seeking a transparent and dynamic legally binding agreement, containing fair and ambitious commitments from all Parties based on evolving global economic and geopolitical circumstances. The Communication also calls for commitments that collectively put the world on track to reduce global emissions by at least 60\,\% below 2010 levels by 2050.

[::] The European Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the Communication 'The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020' gives analytical results based on the latest available science. This report presents more details on the Baseline and Global Mitigation scenarios quoted in the Staff Working Document using the POLES and GEM-E3 models.

[::] The POLES and GEM-E3 models are used to explore possible ways to deliver global efforts to stay below 2°C through processes established in the run-up to Paris COP21. This report explores a combination of domestically determined mitigation targets for the period beyond 2020 respecting the below 2°C objective, differentiated according to national capabilities and based on the most recent estimates of the effects of the current pre-2020 pledges and policies. This report also explores how a framework of international collaboration could enhance further the domestic mitigation contributions.

[::] The modelling results confirm that all major economies and regions can define domestic mitigation goals in line with 2°C, based on their current policy experiences, and that the institutions and mechanisms put in place under the Climate Convention framework can be mobilised to deliver enhanced climate and economic benefits, especially for the countries with less capabilities.

[::] The modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 brings out a number of findings consistent with other recent model based analysis to support the preparation of the Paris agreement

[::1] The scenario of Global Mitigation action in line with staying below 2°C requires a significant transformation across all global regions, and at global level they correspond to large-scale changes compared to the Baseline scenario. [...]

[::2] Global Mitigation action is taking place in a context of various independent evolutions of global energy markets and under a persisting diversity across countries and regions. Climate action can be differentiated and tailored to these evolutions.

[::3] For each country, engaging in Global Mitigation action is a long-term structural challenge involving shifts in investments, trade flows, and key sectors of the economy. [...]

[::4] The efforts that countries are taking to engage in global climate action in line with 2°C are also delivering benefits in terms of improving energy security (reducing the burden of fossil fuel imports for net consumers, as well as diversifying the energy trade for some energy exporters); improving productivity and diversifying the economy (some sectors like equipment goods or services increase their weight and trade). [...]

[::5] The modelling framework that we used in this analysis concentrates on emissions from energy and industrial processes. While agriculture and land use are also included, mitigation trends and opportunities in this area rely on other studies which consider these sectors in greater detail. [...]

[::] Overall, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages some specific policy developments at global level:

[::1 Creating a long-term, dynamic agreement, perceived as fair and effective by all] To stay below 2°C will require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by all countries. [...]

[::2 Creating the confidence needed for global investment and climate action] The GEM-E3 results indicate that the global transition to low-emissions can be achieved without compromising growth and jobs. [...]

[::3 Managing the transition in the period 2020-2030] This modelling work takes conservative assumptions for the period up to 2020 factoring in the countries' efforts to implement their pre-2020 pledges and policies in place; countries could still deliver additional reductions through collaborations in specific sectors, like to reduce F-gases or additional policies. [...]

[::] Furthermore, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages some specific policy developments at regional level:

[::1] Country-specific mitigation objectives, in all regions, should relate to the long-term global goal to stay below 2°C, to add up to the emission reductions needed at global level. [...]

[::2] Along country-specific pathways in the Global Mitigation scenario, multiple sectors realise emission cuts by 2020, 2025, 2030; and ultimately, by 2050 all sources of emissions contribute to mitigation. [...]

[::3] Countries and regions have to aim for low levels of emissions and per capita emissions (to a global average of 4.5tCO2e/cap by 2030 and below 2tCO2e/cap by 2050). [...]

[::4] By design, in the Global Mitigation scenario the countries with the highest responsibilities and capabilities need to deliver the most ambitious mitigation objectives, whereas countries with capacity constraints are not expected to contribute as much. [...]

[::5] The modelling by POLES highlights that under the Global Mitigation scenario, investments are shifting at large scale in the power sector and all countries diversify their energy mix in the period 2020-2030 with significant investment implications and associated benefits for energy security. [...]

[::] Finally, the modelling with POLES and GEM-E3 encourages further development of the analytical framework to support the implementation of low-emission development strategies across regions and at global level.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14038548,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-mitigation,climate,climate-change,economic-impacts,economics,energy,featured-publication,fossil-energy,global-warming,mitigation},
  series = {{{EUR}} - {{Scientific}} and {{Technical Research}}}
}
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