The Problem of Overfitting Data. Larimore, W. & Mehra, R. j-BYTE, October, 1985.
bibtex   
@Article{RSM:Lar85,
  author =       "W.E. Larimore and R.K. Mehra",
  title =        "The Problem of Overfitting Data",
  journal =      j-BYTE,
  year =         "1985",
  month =        oct,
  pages =        "167--180",
  robnote =      "A mathematical model for balancing the number of
                 parameters and the degree of fit. A nice description of
                 the pitfalls of overfitting data and how to get a
                 feeling for when to stop., CompSoft026",
}
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