Combining sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate the impact of management measures with ISIS-Fish: marine protected areas for the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery. Lehuta, S., Mahevas, S., Petitgas, P., & Pelletier, D. ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 67(5):1063-1075, OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND, JUL, 2010.
doi  abstract   bibtex   
Spatio-seasonal explicit simulation models can predict the impact of spatial management measures on marine fish populations and fishing activities. As fisheries are complex systems, fisheries simulation models are often complex, with many uncertain parameters. Here, the methodology is provided to deliver fishery diagnostics within an uncertainty context using a complex simulation tool. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed on model outputs using partial least-squares to identify the most sensitive parameters. The impact of several management measures is then simulated using a statistical simulation design taking into account the uncertainty of the selected sensitive parameters. This approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay anchovy stock using the ISIS-Fish (Integration of Spatial Information for Simulation of Fisheries) model to assess the impact of imposing marine protected areas (MPAs) conditionally on parameter uncertainty. The diagnostic appeared to be highly sensitive to the mortality of larvae and juveniles, growth, and reproduction. The uncertainty of the values of these parameters did not permit any of the simulated MPA designs to be proposed. However, according to anchovy catch and biomass, the simulations allowed the low impact of closure duration to be shown and underscored the utility of protecting such key processes as spawning.
@article{ ISI:000279870500021,
Author = {Lehuta, Sigrid and Mahevas, Stephanie and Petitgas, Pierre and
   Pelletier, Dominique},
Title = {{Combining sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate the impact of
   management measures with ISIS-Fish: marine protected areas for the Bay
   of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) fishery}},
Journal = {{ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE}},
Year = {{2010}},
Volume = {{67}},
Number = {{5}},
Pages = {{1063-1075}},
Month = {{JUL}},
Abstract = {{Spatio-seasonal explicit simulation models can predict the impact of
   spatial management measures on marine fish populations and fishing
   activities. As fisheries are complex systems, fisheries simulation
   models are often complex, with many uncertain parameters. Here, the
   methodology is provided to deliver fishery diagnostics within an
   uncertainty context using a complex simulation tool. A sensitivity
   analysis of the model is performed on model outputs using partial
   least-squares to identify the most sensitive parameters. The impact of
   several management measures is then simulated using a statistical
   simulation design taking into account the uncertainty of the selected
   sensitive parameters. This approach was applied to the Bay of Biscay
   anchovy stock using the ISIS-Fish (Integration of Spatial Information
   for Simulation of Fisheries) model to assess the impact of imposing
   marine protected areas (MPAs) conditionally on parameter uncertainty.
   The diagnostic appeared to be highly sensitive to the mortality of
   larvae and juveniles, growth, and reproduction. The uncertainty of the
   values of these parameters did not permit any of the simulated MPA
   designs to be proposed. However, according to anchovy catch and biomass,
   the simulations allowed the low impact of closure duration to be shown
   and underscored the utility of protecting such key processes as
   spawning.}},
Publisher = {{OXFORD UNIV PRESS}},
Address = {{GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND}},
Type = {{Article}},
Language = {{English}},
Affiliation = {{Lehuta, S (Reprint Author), IFREMER, Rue Ile Yeu,BP 21105, F-44311 Nantes 03, France.
   Lehuta, Sigrid; Mahevas, Stephanie; Petitgas, Pierre, IFREMER, F-44311 Nantes 03, France.
   Pelletier, Dominique, IFREMER, Technopole Brest Iroise, F-29280 Plouzane, France.}},
DOI = {{10.1093/icesjms/fsq002}},
ISSN = {{1054-3139}},
EISSN = {{1095-9289}},
Keywords = {{Bay of Biscay anchovy; marine protected area; sensitivity analysis;
   simulation; uncertainty analysis}},
Keywords-Plus = {{POPULATION-GROWTH; DYNAMIC-MODEL; NE ATLANTIC; ENVIRONMENT; INDICATORS;
   STRATEGIES; SURVIVAL; RESERVES}},
Research-Areas = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Web-of-Science-Categories  = {{Fisheries; Marine \& Freshwater Biology; Oceanography}},
Author-Email = {{sigrid.lehuta@ifremer.fr}},
ORCID-Numbers = {{Pelletier, Dominique/0000-0003-2420-1942
   Lehuta, Sigrid/0000-0002-0807-4675}},
Funding-Acknowledgement = {{EU {[}022717]}},
Funding-Text = {{The work was partly financed by the EU project UNCOVER (FP6, contract
   022717). We thank Andres Uriarte and Leire Ibaibarriaga (AZTI) for
   providing information on the Spanish fishery, and Jean-Pierre Gauchi
   (INRA), Mostafa el Qannari (ENITIAA) and members of the MEXICO network
   for methodological support. Benjamin Poussin provided helpful assistance
   in programming. The study was carried out using logbook data registered
   by the French Fisheries Ministry (DPMA) and extracted from Harmonic, the
   database containing the French fisheries information system managed by
   Ifremer. Finally, we thank Gerd Kraus and two anonymous referees for
   valued comments that helped us improve the manuscript.}},
Number-of-Cited-References = {{47}},
Times-Cited = {{19}},
Usage-Count-Last-180-days = {{0}},
Usage-Count-Since-2013 = {{11}},
Journal-ISO = {{ICES J. Mar. Sci.}},
Doc-Delivery-Number = {{625CR}},
Unique-ID = {{ISI:000279870500021}},
OA = {{No}},
DA = {{2017-08-17}},
}
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